Tis the season for…predictions! As the year draws to a close, pundits, journalists, and other gazers into the future will be spouting prognostications of what lies ahead for the economy and the financial markets. Should you act on them?
The short answer is no.
Although there are exceptions, most year-ahead forecasts and predictions are, well, the polite word is hogwash. But since now is the time when all upstanding financial journalists are expected to tell readers what’s in store for next year, I’ll oblige with my tongue-somewhat-in-cheek predictions of three predictions you’re likely to hear, if you haven’t already. I’ll then explain why you shouldn’t factor these or any other prognostications into your retirement planning, and recommend what you should do instead.
Prediction #1: Dozens of surveys will sound the alarm that Americans are headed for a retirement castastrophe, or worse. You know the type of surveys I’m talking about, the ones typically issued by financial services companies warning that Americans are woefully unprepared for post-career life and/or have no idea of the right way to plan for retirement. They’ve become a staple of the retirement-planning landscape, designed less to inform than grab headlines and send you scurrying into the arms of a financial adviser who, for a price, will help you avert the coming disaster.
Don’t waste your time reading this pap. Spend it instead on practical steps to improve your retirement prospects, starting with a year-end retirement-planning check-up. You can do that in about 15 minutes or so by plugging info about your income, savings, and investments into this retirement income calculator. You’ll immediately get an estimate of your chances of being able to maintain your standard of living if you continue along your current path. If the odds look uncomfortably slim, you can easily see how saving more, investing differently, or putting off retirement a few years might improve them.
Prediction #2: Wall Street sages will predict that stock prices will climb to new highs in 2015…and other market seers will assure us that prices will fall. Such predictions are already coming in. For example, go to Research Magazine‘s December issue and you’ll find First Pacific Advisors’ Bob Rodriguez warning that the market could easily be 20% or 30% lower next year and AFAM Capital’s John Buckingham saying stocks will be higher, perhaps 10% to 12%, if not more. Who’ll be right? Who knows? Maybe the market will collapse and rebound sharply and they’ll both be right. Or perhaps it will remain flat and they’ll both be wrong.
The point is that such forecasts should not figure into your retirement investing strategy. Rather, you should create a mix of stocks and bonds based on your risk tolerance and goals and, aside from periodic rebalancing, largely stick to it regardless of what the market is doing or what investment advisers are saying it will do.
Prediction #3: The bond market will flop. No, seriously, this time for real. Pundits and investment pros alike have been predicting a bond-market crash since at least 2010. And, on the face of it, the gloomy outlook makes sense. Yields have been extraordinarily low for years and remain depressed, with 10-year Treasurys recently yielding just 2.3%. When yields rise, bond prices will fall.
The problem is we don’t know when yields will climb, nor how high. Past predictions of bond bubble trouble haven’t panned out very well. With the exception of last year, when the broad bond market lost 2%, bonds have posted 4%-or-better gains every calendar year since 2009. As of early December, the broad bond market was up nearly 6% year to date. If recent strong job gains kick the economy into overdrive, we could see higher rates next year. But as a recent Vanguard analysis shows, despite their low yields, bonds remain an effective way to diversify and hedge against stock-market risk.
So by all means check out what the various seers, sages, and soothsayers have to say about the year ahead. You might glean the stray insight or at least get a few laughs. But don’t take them too seriously—or, most important, let them divert you from your long-term plan.
Walter Updegrave is the editor of RealDealRetirement.com. If you have a question on retirement or investing that you would like Walter to answer online, send it to him at email@example.com.
More From RealDealRetirement.com