--- title: 61% of Americans Think the U.S. Is in a Recession Right Now... Even Though It's Not description: 61% of Americans believe the U.S. is in a recession. Here's why it feels that way — and what the economic data shows. authors: - name: Adam Hardy role: Lead Data Reporter url: https://money.com/author/adam-hardy/ bio: Adam Hardy is a lead data journalist at Money, where he frequently reports on financial barriers that affect low-income Americans. Adam’s work has also appeared in Business Insider, Forbes, Nasdaq, The Penny Hoarder, Yahoo! Finance and more than a dozen local and regional newspapers. education: University of South Florida, BA, Magazine Journalism at_money_since: 2021 articles: 511 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - The Penny Hoarder - Forbes Advisor - Creative Loafing - The New York Times - The Washington Post - Bloomberg - Harvard Law School - The Federal Register - National Consumer Law Center - CBS News - Becker's Hospital Review - Business Insider - Mother Jones - The Week - Fortune - The Philadelphia Inquirer - National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NAFSAA) - Education Advisory Board (EAB) - The Institute for College Access & Success (TICAS) - This Morning with Gordon Deal - Empower - Reddit social: - https://www.x.com/hardyjournalism - https://www.linkedin.com/in/hardyjournalism/ editors: - name: Katherine Peach role: Associate Editor url: https://money.com/author/katherine-peach/ bio: Katherine Peach is an associate editor with a focus on news and email at Money. She didn’t always intend to write about money. She’s a classically trained pianist who dreamed of becoming an archaeologist. However, in 2007 Katherine began working in financial publishing as an editor for Agora Inc. (Apparently, unearthing ideas about improving your personal finances isn’t such a bad career alternative!) Katherine’s writing and editing work has been featured in Investing Daily, Clever, Investor Junkie, The Palm Beach Letter, Truth & Plenty, Independence Monthly, NICHE, AmericanStyle, AntiqueWeek, Millennial Money, Money Done Right, TheStreet, Sure Dividend and many others. Katherine holds a Bachelor of Arts in Ancient Studies with concentrations in Archaeology and Ancient Languages and a minor in Literature from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. She is a member of Phi Beta Kappa. education: University of Maryland, Baltimore County at_money_since: 2025 articles: 14 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes published: '2026-10-27T12:30:08.000Z' section: Economy and Politics tags: - News word_count: 482 canonical: https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Money piling up](https://img.money.com/2026/10/News-recession-not.jpg) The share of Americans who believe the U.S. is in a recession is steadily growing. Two-thirds of Americans say they’re worried about a recession in the U.S., while 61% incorrectly believe we’re already in one, according to a [recent survey](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/15/voters-economy-cost-of-living-prices-poll) by The Harris Poll and *The Guardian*. The U.S. has not experienced an official recession since 2020. Back then, the economy ground to a halt at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. But for a growing share of Americans, it feels like a recession is here again thanks largely to stubbornly high prices. The survey found that political affiliation plays a noticeable role in that belief, but the feeling is present across party lines. For example, 72% of respondents who identify as Democrats believe the U.S. is in a recession. That share is 61% of independents and 50% for Republicans. The notion has grown across all groups since the previous survey over the summer. The latest results are based on a survey of 3,993 U.S. adults who were polled between Sept. 24 and Oct. 3. ## Why we’re not in a recession (even if it feels like it) Many Americans are feeling the sting of reignited inflation and higher interest rates, largely due to the economic effects of the war in Iran. According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, the war has cost the average American household [about $2,000](https://x.com/Markzandi/status/2109645844458688925?s=20) since it began in February due to higher gas and energy prices, higher borrowing costs due to increased interest rates and higher taxes due to additional military spending. These increased costs are putting more pressure on household budgets, adding to the financial strain many folks are feeling. In the Guardian-Harris survey, gas, grocery and living expenses were the most important issues facing respondents. But that does not necessarily mean the U.S. is in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, is the group that makes the official call once it sees “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months,” according to its website. In effect, that typically consists of two quarters of declining gross domestic product, or GDP. And NBER has not made that call. In fact, the U.S. GDP grew 2.2% in the second quarter of the year and is [expected to expand 3.5%](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow) in the third quarter — a sign of a growing (not shrinking) economy. This disconnect between what everyday Americans are feeling and what economic data shows is sometimes referred to as a “[vibecession](https://money.com/recession-prep-tiktok-trend/).” The disconnect may also just boil down to definitions. Colloquially, people use the term “recession” to describe an economy that isn't doing great for a number of reasons. But a recession simply isn’t declared based on the financial strains facing everyday Americans. No matter how widespread that strain may be, if it isn’t noticeably affecting GDP, it isn’t technically a recession. ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Economy and Politics", "item": "https://money.com/economy-and-politics/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Recession", "item": "https://money.com/recession/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "61% of Americans Think the U.S. Is in a Recession Right Now... Even Though It's Not" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession/", "name": "61% of Americans Think the U.S. Is in a Recession Right Now... Even Though It's Not", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2026-10-27T12:30:08.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession/#breadcrumb" } }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "61% of Americans Think the U.S. Is in a Recession Right Now... Even Though It's Not", "articleSection": "Economy and Politics", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2026/10/News-recession-not.jpg", "width": 2880, "height": 1920, "caption": "News-recession-not" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Adam Hardy", "url": "https://money.com/author/adam-hardy/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/adam-hardy/#author", "description": "Adam Hardy is a lead data journalist at Money, where he frequently reports on financial barriers that affect low-income Americans. Adam’s work has also appeared in Business Insider, Forbes, Nasdaq, The Penny Hoarder, Yahoo! Finance and more than a dozen local and regional newspapers.", "image": "https://img.money.com/2022/01/a_adam-hardy.jpg?quality=85&w=400&h=440&crop=1", "email": "adam.hardy@money.com", "jobTitle": "Lead Data Reporter", "alumniOf": "University of South Florida, BA, Magazine Journalism", "subjectOf": [ { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.thepennyhoarder.com/", "name": "The Penny Hoarder" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.forbes.com/advisor/", "name": "Forbes Advisor" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://creativeloafing.com/", "name": "Creative Loafing" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/opinion/biden-trump-harris-2024.html", "name": "The New York Times" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/26/flexible-spending-account-is-flawed-benefit/", "name": "The Washington Post" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-20/-100-000-h-1b-visa-fee-is-a-gamble-that-could-protect-us-jobs", "name": "Bloomberg" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/02/08/whoop-and-the-irs-how-tax-avoidance-helps-health/", "name": "Harvard Law School" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/12/29/2025-23853/weighted-selection-process-for-registrants-and-petitioners-seeking-to-file-cap-subject-h-1b#footnote-33-p60883", "name": "The Federal Register" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.nclc.org/resources/what-states-can-do-to-stop-credit-reporting-abuses/", "name": "National Consumer Law Center" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/open-enrollment-irs-changes-fsa-hsa-flexible-spending-account-health-savings-account-2023/", "name": "CBS News" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/20-top-us-hospitals-for-2025-per-money/", "name": "Becker's Hospital Review" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/using-chatgpt-ai-write-cover-letters-job-applications-2023-2", "name": "Business Insider" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/a-major-strike-of-beef-workers-pauses-in-colorado-but-workers-say-the-fight-isnt-over/", "name": "Mother Jones" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://theweek.com/business/economy/job-market-frozen-thawing", "name": "The Week" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://fortune.com/2023/12/20/workers-lose-money-on-unused-fsa-accounts-deadlines-what-companies-should-do/", "name": "Fortune" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/editorials/liberation-day-tariffs-economy-stock-market-trump-20250401.html", "name": "The Philadelphia Inquirer" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.nasfaa.org/news-item/37955/Student_Loan_Changes_2026_New_Repayment_Options_Taxable_Forgiveness_and_More_on_the_Way", "name": "National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NAFSAA)" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://eab.com/resources/blog/adult-education-blog/graduate-funding-shift-pricing-aid-strategies-aligned/", "name": "Education Advisory Board (EAB)" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://ticas.org/california/state-private-loans-protections-blog/", "name": "The Institute for College Access & Success (TICAS)" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://thismorningwithgordondeal.com/b/This-Morning-with-Gordon-Deal-August-04,-2026/421564107823081285.html", "name": "This Morning with Gordon Deal" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.empower.com/the-currency/life/pumpkin-spice-season-spending", "name": "Empower" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1va10oa/comment/p0i9bju/", "name": "Reddit" } ], "sameAs": [ "https://www.x.com/hardyjournalism", "https://www.linkedin.com/in/hardyjournalism/" ], "worksFor": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } } ], "publisher": "https://money.com/#organization", "datePublished": "2026-10-27T12:30:08.000Z", "description": "61% of Americans believe the U.S. is in a recession. Here's why it feels that way — and what the economic data shows.", "abstract": "61% of Americans believe the U.S. is in a recession. Here's why it feels that way — and what the economic data shows.", "@id": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession/", "inLanguage": "en-US", "editor": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Katherine Peach", "url": "https://money.com/author/katherine-peach/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/katherine-peach/#author", "description": "Katherine Peach is an associate editor with a focus on news and email at Money. She didn’t always intend to write about money. She’s a classically trained pianist who dreamed of becoming an archaeologist. However, in 2007 Katherine began working in financial publishing as an editor for Agora Inc. (Apparently, unearthing ideas about improving your personal finances isn’t such a bad career alternative!)\r\n\r\nKatherine’s writing and editing work has been featured in Investing Daily, Clever, Investor Junkie, The Palm Beach Letter, Truth & Plenty, Independence Monthly, NICHE, AmericanStyle, AntiqueWeek, Millennial Money, Money Done Right, TheStreet, Sure Dividend and many others.\r\n\r\nKatherine holds a Bachelor of Arts in Ancient Studies with concentrations in Archaeology and Ancient Languages and a minor in Literature from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. She is a member of Phi Beta Kappa.", "jobTitle": "Associate Editor", "alumniOf": "University of Maryland, Baltimore County", "worksFor": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } } ], "wordCount": 482, "keywords": [ "News" ], "about": [ { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Political economy", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_economy" ] }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Recession", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession" ] } ] } ] } ```