--- title: Inflation Could Push Social Security COLA Above 4% in 2027 description: Social Security recipients could see a 4% COLA increase in 2027 as inflation and oil prices surge. authors: - name: Adam Hardy role: Lead Data Reporter url: https://money.com/author/adam-hardy/ bio: Adam Hardy is a lead data journalist at Money, where he frequently reports on financial barriers that affect low-income Americans. Adam’s work has also appeared in Business Insider, Forbes, Nasdaq, The Penny Hoarder, Yahoo! Finance and more than a dozen local and regional newspapers. education: University of South Florida, BA, Magazine Journalism at_money_since: 2021 articles: 499 covers: - Retirement - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - The Penny Hoarder - Forbes Advisor - Creative Loafing - The New York Times - The Washington Post - Bloomberg - Harvard Law School - The Federal Register - National Consumer Law Center - CBS News - Becker's Hospital Review - Business Insider - Mother Jones - The Week - Fortune - The Philadelphia Inquirer - National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NAFSAA) - Education Advisory Board (EAB) - The Institute for College Access & Success (TICAS) - This Morning with Gordon Deal - Empower - Reddit social: - https://www.x.com/hardyjournalism - https://www.linkedin.com/in/hardyjournalism/ editors: - name: Katherine Peach role: Associate Editor url: https://money.com/author/katherine-peach/ bio: Katherine Peach is an associate editor with a focus on news and email at Money. She didn’t always intend to write about money. She’s a classically trained pianist who dreamed of becoming an archaeologist. However, in 2007 Katherine began working in financial publishing as an editor for Agora Inc. (Apparently, unearthing ideas about improving your personal finances isn’t such a bad career alternative!) Katherine’s writing and editing work has been featured in Investing Daily, Clever, Investor Junkie, The Palm Beach Letter, Truth & Plenty, Independence Monthly, NICHE, AmericanStyle, AntiqueWeek, Millennial Money, Money Done Right, TheStreet, Sure Dividend and many others. Katherine holds a Bachelor of Arts in Ancient Studies with concentrations in Archaeology and Ancient Languages and a minor in Literature from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. She is a member of Phi Beta Kappa. education: University of Maryland, Baltimore County at_money_since: 2025 articles: 14 covers: - Retirement - Banking - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Economy and Politics - Education - Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Shopping - Taxes published: '2026-05-12T17:26:17.000Z' modified: '2026-05-13T13:25:30.000Z' section: Retirement tags: - News - Retirement word_count: 474 canonical: https://money.com/inflation-latest-cola-estimate-increase-2027/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Social Security card and cash](https://img.money.com/2026/05/News-Iran-War-Inflation-COLA.jpg) Due to surging inflation, millions of Social Security recipients may get a notable boost to their monthly payments in 2027. The Social Security Administration’s [annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA,](https://money.com/inflation-increase-cola-2027-estimate/) is expected to rise between 3.9% and 4.2% next year, according to estimates released Tuesday that are based on the latest inflation report. According to the [Department of Labor](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm), prices rose a higher-than-expected 3.8% for the year ending in April, largely as a result of the ongoing Iran war, which is causing oil prices to soar. For older and disabled Americans who rely on Social Security benefits, “massive jumps” in oil prices, in particular, put strain on their budgets, says Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst who’s predicting a 4.2% COLA. For example, Johnson notes residential heating oil costs have risen 54.3%. “And it doesn’t stop there,” she says: Coffee prices are up nearly 30%**,** and fresh veggies prices rose about 12%. ## 2027 COLA could hit 5-year high If the COLA reaches about 4% for 2027, that would mark the largest benefits adjustment since 2022, when it hit a staggering 8.7% at the zenith of the pandemic-induced inflation crisis. Each year, the Social Security Administration is legally required to recalculate benefits based on recent inflation trends to help payments keep pace with rising prices. However, the agency uses a separate inflation reading for urban and clerical workers, known as the CPI-W. For April, this inflation rate was slightly higher than the headline number, clocking in at 3.9%. The official COLA will be announced in October. Despite this built-in inflation protection, Social Security payments still fall short for many recipients, advocates warn. More than [70 million Americans](https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/) rely on monthly Social Security checks. The lion’s share of them — about 57 million — are retirees. In April, the average monthly retirement benefit was $2,026. A 4% increase would push that to $2,107, for an increase of roughly $81. However, retirees must deal with the rising costs in real time, with the potential $81 increase not arriving for about seven more months. According to The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) — the nonprofit advocacy group behind the 3.9% COLA prediction — that’s too little, too late. “In volatile periods like this, especially when driven by sudden geopolitical events, the lag can significantly erode purchasing power and highlight the disconnect between lived expenses and the formula used to adjust benefits,” Shannon Benton, executive director at TSCL, [previously told Money](https://money.com/inflation-increase-cola-2027-estimate/). New [research released on Tuesday](https://web.charityengine.net/Default.aspx?tsid=40811) by the group demonstrates the impact clearly. TSCL compared the buying power of Social Security benefits between 2016 and 2026 and found benefits lost 13.7% of their value during that 10-year period. In other words, Social Security benefits would need to be about $296 higher today to be able to purchase the same amount of goods that they could in 2016. ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/inflation-latest-cola-estimate-increase-2027/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Retirement", "item": "https://money.com/retirement/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Social Security", "item": "https://money.com/social-security/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Inflation Could Push Social Security COLA Above 4% in 2027" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/inflation-latest-cola-estimate-increase-2027/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/inflation-latest-cola-estimate-increase-2027/", "name": "Inflation Could Push Social Security COLA Above 4% in 2027", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2026-05-12T17:26:17.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/inflation-latest-cola-estimate-increase-2027/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/inflation-latest-cola-estimate-increase-2027/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2026-05-13T13:25:30.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Inflation Could Push Social Security COLA Above 4% in 2027", "articleSection": "Retirement", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2026/05/News-Iran-War-Inflation-COLA.jpg", "width": 2880, "height": 1920, "caption": "News-Iran-War-Inflation-COLA" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Adam Hardy", "url": "https://money.com/author/adam-hardy/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/adam-hardy/#author", "description": "Adam Hardy is a lead data journalist at Money, where he frequently reports on financial barriers that affect low-income Americans. Adam’s work has also appeared in Business Insider, Forbes, Nasdaq, The Penny Hoarder, Yahoo! Finance and more than a dozen local and regional newspapers.", "image": "https://img.money.com/2022/01/a_adam-hardy.jpg?quality=85&w=400&h=440&crop=1", "email": "adam.hardy@money.com", "jobTitle": "Lead Data Reporter", "alumniOf": "University of South Florida, BA, Magazine Journalism", "subjectOf": [ { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.thepennyhoarder.com/", "name": "The Penny Hoarder" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.forbes.com/advisor/", "name": "Forbes Advisor" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://creativeloafing.com/", "name": "Creative Loafing" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/opinion/biden-trump-harris-2024.html", "name": "The New York Times" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/26/flexible-spending-account-is-flawed-benefit/", "name": "The Washington Post" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-20/-100-000-h-1b-visa-fee-is-a-gamble-that-could-protect-us-jobs", "name": "Bloomberg" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/02/08/whoop-and-the-irs-how-tax-avoidance-helps-health/", "name": "Harvard Law School" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/12/29/2025-23853/weighted-selection-process-for-registrants-and-petitioners-seeking-to-file-cap-subject-h-1b#footnote-33-p60883", "name": "The Federal Register" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.nclc.org/resources/what-states-can-do-to-stop-credit-reporting-abuses/", "name": "National Consumer Law Center" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/open-enrollment-irs-changes-fsa-hsa-flexible-spending-account-health-savings-account-2023/", "name": "CBS News" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/rankings-and-ratings/20-top-us-hospitals-for-2025-per-money/", "name": "Becker's Hospital Review" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/using-chatgpt-ai-write-cover-letters-job-applications-2023-2", "name": "Business Insider" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/a-major-strike-of-beef-workers-pauses-in-colorado-but-workers-say-the-fight-isnt-over/", "name": "Mother Jones" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://theweek.com/business/economy/job-market-frozen-thawing", "name": "The Week" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://fortune.com/2023/12/20/workers-lose-money-on-unused-fsa-accounts-deadlines-what-companies-should-do/", "name": "Fortune" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/editorials/liberation-day-tariffs-economy-stock-market-trump-20250401.html", "name": "The Philadelphia Inquirer" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.nasfaa.org/news-item/37955/Student_Loan_Changes_2026_New_Repayment_Options_Taxable_Forgiveness_and_More_on_the_Way", "name": "National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NAFSAA)" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://eab.com/resources/blog/adult-education-blog/graduate-funding-shift-pricing-aid-strategies-aligned/", "name": "Education Advisory Board (EAB)" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://ticas.org/california/state-private-loans-protections-blog/", "name": "The Institute for College Access & Success (TICAS)" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://thismorningwithgordondeal.com/b/This-Morning-with-Gordon-Deal-August-04,-2026/421564107823081285.html", "name": "This Morning with Gordon Deal" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.empower.com/the-currency/life/pumpkin-spice-season-spending", "name": "Empower" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1va10oa/comment/p0i9bju/", "name": "Reddit" } ], "sameAs": [ "https://www.x.com/hardyjournalism", "https://www.linkedin.com/in/hardyjournalism/" ], "worksFor": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } } ], "publisher": "https://money.com/#organization", "datePublished": "2026-05-12T17:26:17.000Z", "description": "Social Security recipients could see a 4% COLA increase in 2027 as inflation and oil prices surge.", "abstract": "Social Security recipients could see a 4% COLA increase in 2027 as inflation and oil prices surge.", "@id": "https://money.com/inflation-latest-cola-estimate-increase-2027/", "inLanguage": "en-US", "dateModified": "2026-05-13T13:25:30.000Z", "editor": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Katherine Peach", "url": "https://money.com/author/katherine-peach/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/katherine-peach/#author", "description": "Katherine Peach is an associate editor with a focus on news and email at Money. She didn’t always intend to write about money. She’s a classically trained pianist who dreamed of becoming an archaeologist. However, in 2007 Katherine began working in financial publishing as an editor for Agora Inc. (Apparently, unearthing ideas about improving your personal finances isn’t such a bad career alternative!)\r\n\r\nKatherine’s writing and editing work has been featured in Investing Daily, Clever, Investor Junkie, The Palm Beach Letter, Truth & Plenty, Independence Monthly, NICHE, AmericanStyle, AntiqueWeek, Millennial Money, Money Done Right, TheStreet, Sure Dividend and many others.\r\n\r\nKatherine holds a Bachelor of Arts in Ancient Studies with concentrations in Archaeology and Ancient Languages and a minor in Literature from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. She is a member of Phi Beta Kappa.", "jobTitle": "Associate Editor", "alumniOf": "University of Maryland, Baltimore County", "worksFor": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } } ], "wordCount": 474, "keywords": [ "News", "Retirement" ], "about": [ { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Retirement", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement" ] }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Social Security (United States)", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_(United_States)" ] } ] } ] } ```