Retirement confidence in the U.S. stands at its highest point since the Great Recession, new research shows. But the recent gains have been almost entirely confined to those with a traditional pension or tax-advantaged retirement account, such as a 401(k) or IRA.
Some 22% of workers are “very” confident they will be able to live comfortably in retirement, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute 2015 Retirement Confidence Survey, an annual benchmark report. That’s up from 18% last year and 13% in 2013. But it remains shy of the 27% reading hit in 2007, just before the meltdown. Adding those who are “somewhat” confident, the share jumps to 58%—again, well below the 2007 reading (70%).
The heightened sense of security comes as the job market has inched back to life and home values are on the rise. Perhaps more importantly: stocks have been on a tear, rising by double digits five of the last six years and tripling from their recession lows.
Those with an employer-sponsored retirement plan are most likely to have avoided selling stocks while they were depressed and to have stuck to a savings regimen. With the market surge, it should come as no surprise that this group has regained the most confidence—71% of those with a plan are very or somewhat confident, vs. just 33% of those who are not, EBRI found. (That finding echoes earlier surveys highlighting retirement inequality.)
Among those who aren't saving, daily living costs are the most commonly cited reason (50%). While worries over debt are down, it remains a key variable. Only 6% of those with a major debt problem are confident about retirement while 56% are not confident at all. But despite those savings barriers, most workers say they could save a bit more for retirement—69% say they could put away $25 a week more than they're doing now.
At the root of growing retirement confidence is a perceived ability to afford potentially frightening old-age expenses, including long-term care (14% are very confident, vs. 9% in 2011) and other medical expenses (18%, vs. 12% in 2011). The market rebound probably explains most of that, though flexible and affordable new long-term care options and wider availability of health insurance through Obamacare may play a role.
At the same time, many workers have adjusted to the likelihood they will work longer, which means they can save longer and get more from Social Security by delaying benefits. Some 16% of workers say the date they intend to retire has changed in the past year, and 81% of those say the date is later than previously planned. In all, 64% of workers say they are behind schedule as it relates to saving for retirement, drawing a clear picture of our saving crisis no matter how many are feeling better about their prospects.
Those adjustments are simply realistic. Some 57% of workers say their total savings and investments are less than $25,000. Only one out of five workers with plans have more than $250,000 saved for retirement, and only 1% of those without plans. Clearly, additional working and saving is necessary to avoid running out of money.
Still, many workers have no idea how much they even need to be putting away. When asked what percentage of income they need to save, 27% said they didn't know. And almost half of workers age 45 and older have not tried to figure out how much money they need to meet their retirement goals, though those numbers are edging up. As previous EBRI studies have found, workers who make these calculations tend to set higher goals, and they are more confident about reaching them.
To build your own savings plan, start by using an online retirement savings calculator, such as those offered by T. Rowe Price or Vanguard. And you can check out Money's retirement advice here and here.