--- title: Gas Prices Could Finally Fall Below $4 Before 2027 description: A new report predicts the gas prices could dip near or even below $4 by the end of the year — but the Iran war remains a wild card. authors: - name: Liliana Hall role: Reporter url: https://money.com/author/liliana-hall/ bio: Liliana Hall joined Money in 2025. She is an Austin-based reporter for Money, where she covers a range of topics, including financial news, policy, banking, investing, passive income, financial planning and student loan debt. education: University of Texas at Austin at_money_since: 2025 articles: 143 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes social: - https://x.com/lilihallllllll - https://www.linkedin.com/in/liliana-hall/ editors: - name: Julia Glum role: Managing Editor url: https://money.com/author/julia-glum/ bio: Julia Glum joined Money in 2018 and specializes in covering financial trends that affect everyday Americans' wallets. She also writes Dollar Scholar, a weekly newsletter that teaches young adults how to navigate the messy world of money. education: University of Florida at_money_since: 2018 articles: 454 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - Newsweek - International Business Times - CBS News - Good Morning America - WUSA9 - Pix 11 - The New York Times - Mashable - The Washington Post - CNBC - Politico social: - https://x.com/superjulia - https://www.linkedin.com/in/julia-glum published: '2026-10-16T17:55:01.000Z' modified: '2026-10-16T17:55:01.000Z' section: Economy and Politics tags: - News word_count: 608 canonical: https://money.com/will-gas-prices-go-down-before-end-of-2026/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Gas price chart and gas hose](https://img.money.com/2026/10/News-Gas-price-drop.jpg) Gas prices are averaging $4.33 a gallon nationwide — still more than $1 higher than a year ago — but drivers could finally see some relief before the end of the year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, said in its October forecast that it expects prices to gradually decline in the coming months, with the national average falling below $4 in December. Increased refinery production following season maintenance, combined with lower gasoline consumption during the winter months, should help inventories rebuild in December and ease some pressure on prices. A major wild card is the [Iran war](https://money.com/iran-war-gas-prices-surge/), which has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global energy supplies. Before the conflict began on Feb. 28, the national average for regular gasoline was $2.98 a gallon. Prices climbed to $4.56 in May before dropping below $4 in June as the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to reopen the strait. That agreement and resulting price relief didn't last, leading to current prices. Looking forward, the EIA’s [forecast](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf#page=6) assumes production and exports from the Middle East will gradually increase as alternative shipping routes and other workarounds bring more oil to market. But drivers may not see relief immediately. The agency expects U.S. gasoline inventories to remain tight, keeping refining margins — the difference between wholesale gasoline prices and the cost of crude oil — higher than usual into early 2027. And even when wholesale prices decline, it can take time for those decreases to reach the pump, where taxes and the cost of distributing and selling fuel also factor into the price consumers ultimately pay. In an email to Money, the EIA cautioned that its forecast faces “above-average uncertainty.” ## Gas price predictions for late 2026, early 2027 While the EIA expects prices to ease, it also warns that tight gasoline supplies could limit the decline seen by the end of the year. Tom Kloza, chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil, is even less bullish on the outlook. He estimates that the national average will be around $4.11 per gallon at the end of December. “I think U.S. gas prices will stay above $4 a gallon through the midterms, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see something on either side of $4 a gallon by year’s end,” Kloza tells Money. “If I had to bet, I’d bet on a U.S. average above $4 \[per gallon\] heading into 2027.” That doesn’t mean prices won’t fall in the meantime. Kloza notes that [gasoline prices](https://money.com/how-to-save-money-on-gas/) typically reach their seasonal lows between mid-December and the end of January, when colder weather and fewer road trips tend to reduce demand. In particular, areas supplied by Gulf Coast refineries may see more substantial relief, while prices in Western states are likely to remain higher. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, is reluctant to make a year-end prediction at all. He says ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, as well as Ukraine and Russia, have made gasoline prices particularly difficult to forecast. “Any escalation could push prices up and any de-escalation could push prices down,” De Haan says. “As a result, due to the current and ongoing geopolitical tensions, it looks like prices this year will be near record levels.” For consumers, the outlook points to the possibility of some relief in December but not a guarantee that gas will fall below $4 nationwide. The EIA's forecast depends in part on global oil supplies recovering, while tight gasoline inventories could limit how much prices decline. And even if the national average dips below $4, drivers may see different prices depending on [where they live](https://money.com/iran-war-gas-prices-highest-10-states/). ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/will-gas-prices-go-down-before-end-of-2026/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Economy and Politics", "item": "https://money.com/economy-and-politics/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Gas Prices", "item": "https://money.com/gas-prices/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Gas Prices Could Finally Fall Below $4 Before 2027" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/will-gas-prices-go-down-before-end-of-2026/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/will-gas-prices-go-down-before-end-of-2026/", "name": "Gas Prices Could Finally Fall Below $4 Before 2027", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2026-10-16T17:55:01.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/will-gas-prices-go-down-before-end-of-2026/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/will-gas-prices-go-down-before-end-of-2026/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2026-10-16T17:55:01.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Gas Prices Could Finally Fall Below $4 Before 2027", "articleSection": "Economy and Politics", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2026/10/News-Gas-price-drop.jpg", "width": 2880, "height": 1920, "caption": "News-Gas-price-drop" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Liliana Hall", "url": "https://money.com/author/liliana-hall/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/liliana-hall/#author", "description": "Liliana Hall joined Money in 2025. 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