--- title: Economists Warn of Global Recession Following Trump Victory description: Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman predicted that a Trump presidency will usher in "a global recession, with no end in sight." authors: - name: Martha C. White role: Reporter url: https://money.com/author/martha-c-white/ education: BA, English, Princeton University at_money_since: 2015 articles: 362 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - The New York Times - The Wall Street Journal - CNN - Kiplinger Personal Finance - Time social: - https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-c-white/ published: '2016-11-09T14:05:37.000Z' modified: '2016-11-09T14:05:37.000Z' section: Economy and Politics tags: - 2016 presidential election - Donald Trump - pubdesk - Recession word_count: 371 canonical: https://money.com/donald-trump-global-recession-fears/ type: Article source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Frankfurt Stock Exchange Reacts To U.S. Elections Results](https://img.money.com/2016/11/trump-recession.jpeg) *A trader reacts as he watch the speech of Donald Trump at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on November 9, 2016 in Frankfurt, Germany. Stock markets around the world reacted with volatility to the surprise win for Republican candidate Donald Trump in yesterday's U.S. presidential elections.* Prominent economists warned investors the day after the U.S. presidential election to brace for a recession; possibly, in the words of one, "a global recession, with no end in sight." With overseas markets thrown into upheaval overnight as election results came in showing that Donald Trump had won the presidential race, Nobel prize-winning economist and [*New York Times*](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout) columnist Paul Krugman warned late last night that the economic fallout could be unprecedented, calling the election results "the mother of all adverse effects" on the still-fragile U.S. economy. "What it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work," he wrote. ![In Japan, traders working a foreign exchange desk watch U.S. election results. The Nikkei index fell more than 900 points as Trump's win became real.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_13.jpg) *In Japan, traders working a foreign exchange desk watch U.S. election results. The Nikkei index fell more than 900 points as Trump's win became real. (Toru Hanai—Reuters)* ![The Philippine Stock exchange fell to a 7-month low on Trump’s win. In this photo, a Filipino trader looks at the electronic board showing a downward trend during trading at the Philippine Stock Exchange at the financial district of Makati, south of Manila, Philippines, Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2016.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_2.jpg) *The Philippine Stock exchange fell to a [7-month low](http://www.rappler.com/business/151837-philippines-pse-stocks-donald-trump-win) on Trump’s win. In this photo, a Filipino trader looks at the electronic board showing a downward trend during trading at the Philippine Stock Exchange at the financial district of Makati, south of Manila, Philippines, Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2016. (Aaron Favila—AP)* ![Pedestrians look at an electronic stock board displaying the Nikkei Stock Average outside a securities firm in Tokyo on Nov. 9, 2016. The yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar, which will make it more difficult for Japan to fight off its ongoing inflation problem.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_4.jpg) *Pedestrians look at an electronic stock board displaying the Nikkei Stock Average outside a securities firm in Tokyo on Nov. 9, 2016. The yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar, which will make it more difficult for Japan to fight off its ongoing inflation problem. (Tomohiro Ohsumi—Bloomberg via Getty Images)* ![As news that Clinton lost major battleground states was confirmed, billions were wiped from Australian Securities Exchange, as it was described as "a sea of red."](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_11.jpg) *As news that Clinton lost major battleground states was confirmed, billions were wiped from Australian Securities Exchange, as it was [described](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919012/Australian-share-market-plunge-likely-Donald-Trump-win-scares-investors.html) as "a sea of red." (David Gray—Reuters)* ![One of Trump's biggest campaign promises has been to crack down on the Chinese government, who Trump says weakens the value of China's renminbi, giving it an unfair advantage in world trade. The Chinese currency rallied as the U.S. dollar's value fell following Trump's win.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_5.jpg) *One of Trump's biggest campaign promises has been to crack down on the Chinese government, who Trump says weakens the value of China's renminbi, giving it an unfair advantage in world trade. The Chinese currency [rallied](http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/2044314/yuan-rallies-us-dollar-dragged-down-fears-trump-victory) as the U.S. dollar's value fell following Trump's win. (Wang Zhao—AFP/Getty Images)* ![Asian markets were up and running during the wee hours of the morning in the U.S., when Trump's gain on electoral college votes surpassed Clinton's. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell to 2.6%.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_6.jpg) *Asian markets were up and running during the wee hours of the morning in the U.S., when Trump's gain on electoral college votes surpassed Clinton's. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index [fell to 2.6%.](http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-election-day-2016-asian-markets-slump-in-reaction-to-1478675294-htmlstory.html) (Isaac Lawrence—AFP/Getty Images)* ![Gulf State markets -- such as the Qatar Stock Exchange being monitored by a trader shown here -- fell after news of the Trump victory. These markets are heavily exposed to changes in the oil market, and Trump has promised to make America an even bigger fuel and oil producer.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_15.jpg) *Gulf State markets -- such as the Qatar Stock Exchange being monitored by a trader shown here -- fell after news of the Trump victory. These markets are heavily exposed to changes in the oil market, and Trump has promised to make America an even bigger [fuel and oil](http://fortune.com/2016/11/09/opec-oil-prices-donald-trump/) producer. (Naseem—Reuters)* ![A trader watches Trump on TV as Dubai’s stock market falls. The one upside for traders there? The U.S. doesn't do much trade with countries like Dubai, so Trump's protectionist trade policies may not impact them directly.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_17.jpg) *A trader watches Trump on TV as Dubai’s stock market falls. The one upside for traders there? The U.S. [doesn't do much trade](http://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-stocks-idUSL8N1DA5IB) with countries like Dubai, so Trump's protectionist trade policies may not impact them directly. (Ashraf Mohammad Mohammad Alam—Reuters)* ![In Germany, the DAX exchange fell 3% after trading began, following news of Trump's victory.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_1.jpg) *In Germany, the DAX exchange [fell](http://www.dw.com/en/markets-jittery-after-trump-wins-election/a-36317916) 3% after trading began, following news of Trump's victory. (Michael Probst—AP)* ![Traders on the floor at ETX Capital in London watched as Trump was elected. The UK markets suffered huge losses in June, after their own surprise Brexit referendum results sent stocks into a tailspin.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_9.jpg) *Traders on the floor at ETX Capital in London watched as Trump was elected. The UK markets suffered huge losses in June, after their own surprise Brexit referendum results sent stocks into a tailspin. (Chris Ratcliffe—Bloomberg via Getty Images)* ![A man looks at a screen displaying news of markets update inside the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, India, November 9, 2016.](https://img.money.com/2016/11/161109_gall_marketsreacttrump_12.jpg) *A man looks at a screen displaying news of markets update inside the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, India, November 9, 2016. (Danish Siddiqui—Reuters)* In a Wednesday morning Tweet, Krugman walked back his dire predictions to an extent, saying the fallout might not be worldwide. Krugman wasn't the only economist expressing concern on Wednesday. Nordea Chief Economist Helge Pedersen predicted in a note to clients that Trump's anti-globalization stance and protectionist trade policies could result in a trade war that would trigger a recession, according to [Bloomberg](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-11-09/trump-presidency-may-trigger-u-s-recession-trade-war-nordea). HSBC chief US economist Kevin Logan wrote in a note to clients Wednesday that Trump's economic policies "would likely put the economy into a recession after a year or two," [Business Insider](http://www.businessinsider.com/hsbc-president-donald-trump-economic-policies-2016-11) said. Others were less circumspect and more blunt in their assessments. "How President Donald Trump will wreck the world economy," read a headline in the U.K.'s [*The Independent*](http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/president-donald-trump-dollar-failing-financial-crash-a7404816.html). "Welcome to the Trump Recession" read one on [24/7 Wall St](http://247wallst.com/economy/2016/11/09/welcome-to-the-trump-recession/). HSBC's Logan sounded one note of potential optimism, writing, "Whether his proposals will actually be implemented depends on the willingness of Congress to enact legislation to put his proposals into law." Of course it's never been a secret that Trump's trade and immigration policies are unpopular with academic economists of all political stripes. Indeed in August, when the [Wall Street Journal polled](http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/25/economists-whove-advised-presidents-are-no-fans-of-donald-trump/) 17 economists who had advised Republican presidents, none said they backed Trump. What's more, economic predictions don't always come to pass. While many pundits predicted that the Brexit vote would wreck Great Britain's economy, that hasn't happened yet. Although all bets are off on what comes yet when it is actually enacted -- or for that matter, when Trump takes office. ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/donald-trump-global-recession-fears/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Economy and Politics", "item": "https://money.com/economy-and-politics/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Economy", "item": "https://money.com/economy/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Economists Warn of Global Recession Following Trump Victory" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/donald-trump-global-recession-fears/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/donald-trump-global-recession-fears/", "name": "Economists Warn of Global Recession Following Trump Victory", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2016-11-09T14:05:37.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/donald-trump-global-recession-fears/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/donald-trump-global-recession-fears/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2016-11-09T14:05:37.000Z" }, { "@type": "Article", "headline": "Economists Warn of Global Recession Following Trump Victory", "articleSection": "Economy and Politics", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2016/11/trump-recession.jpeg", "width": 5568, "height": 3712, "caption": "trump-recession" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Martha C. 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