--- title: Will Stocks Rally to Close out 2022? Here's What History Tells Us description: September was brutal for stocks. If history is any indication, there's a good chance of a stock market rally at the end of 2022. authors: - name: Mallika Mitra role: Contributing Editor url: https://money.com/author/mallika-mitra/ bio: Mallika Mitra is a contributing editor for Money, based in Chicago. She has covered investing and retirement for seven years and her work has appeared in CNBC, Bloomberg, Kiplinger, AARP, Barron’s, Bankrate, The Daily Upside, ETF.com, The Bond Buyer, PLANADVISER, PLANSPONSOR and Investopedia. education: Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY Kalamazoo College at_money_since: 2020 articles: 395 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - CNBC - Bloomberg - Kiplinger - Barron's - Bankrate - WGN-TV - CBS News Radio - This Morning With Gordon Deal - Everyone's Talkin' Money social: - https://twitter.com/mitra_mallika - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mallika-mitra-4577a386/ editors: - name: Brad Tuttle role: Senior Editor url: https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/ bio: Brad Tuttle is a former senior editor at Money with over 10 years’ experience covering a vast number of personal finance topics, including careers, cars, travel, budgeting, investing, insurance, credit cards, consumer psychology, real estate, banking, and shopping and deals. education: Columbia University School of Journalism, MS at_money_since: 2014 articles: 366 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology social: - https://twitter.com/bradrtuttle - https://linkedin.com/in/brad-tuttle-834b225 former_staff: true published: '2022-09-30T15:58:38.000Z' modified: '2024-01-10T13:52:13.000Z' section: Economy and Politics tags: - News - stocks word_count: 626 canonical: https://money.com/stocks-rally-history-end-of-year/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Stock Traders Looking At Screens](https://img.money.com/2022/09/News-Stocks-Go-Up-Starting-October.jpg) After another rough month for stocks, here's some good news: Prices tend to get a bump around the end of the year. In fact, the stock market is now entering what has historically been its best three-month period of the calendar year, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. A boost to [stocks](https://money.com/how-to-buy-stocks/) can't come soon enough for investors. Financial markets have been struggling this year amid a series of [Federal Reserve interest rate hikes](https://money.com/fed-interest-rate-hike-september-2022/) aimed at lowering inflation. September — typically the [worst month of the year for stocks](https://money.com/september-worst-month-for-stocks/) — lived up to its reputation and has been brutal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average [fell into a bear market](https://money.com/investing-moves-dow-bear-market/) this week, joining the other two major stock indexes that had already fallen more than 20% from a recent high, the [S&P 500](https://money.com/how-to-invest-in-sp500/) and Nasdaq Composite. The S&P 500 was trading down around 24% for the year on Friday morning. The good news for investors is that stocks tend to see better performance in the last three months of the year after suffering in September. Here's what history tells us about how stocks have traditionally performed in October, November and December — and, perhaps, what this bodes for the market at the end of 2022. ## How stocks perform in October, November, December Since the mid-1940s, the S&P 500 has averaged a jump of around 0.9% in October, 1.4% in November and 1.6% in December, according to data from CFRA Research. That's compared to the index losing an average of 0.6% in September. Since 1945, the S&P 500 rose in 60% of the Octobers, 66% of the Novembers and a whopping 77% of the Decembers, CFRA found. It's important to note that there's no guarantee the seasonal trends will hold up this year. Plus, the economy is full of uncertainty lately. The Fed has signaled it plans to continue to hike rates as much as it takes to [lower inflation](https://money.com/inflation-affecting-stock-market-2022/) — a move that also typically hurts the price of financial assets like [stocks](https://money.com/how-to-buy-stocks/), [bonds](https://money.com/buying-bonds-great-investing-move/) and [crypto](https://money.com/what-is-cryptocurrency/). Wall Street experts are [already warning](https://money.com/wall-street-forecast-stocks-fall-even-further/) that stocks may have further to fall. ## Stocks rally at the end of mid-term election years The U.S. mid-term elections will also be top of mind as November approaches, and not just for voters: The last three months of mid-year election years have historically been good ones for the stock market. “Midterm years tend to see very strong end of year rallies, whereas the first three quarters are usually weak," Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, tells Money via email. "Let’s not forget that markets hate uncertainty and once the uncertainty of the election is over, the seasonal strength in November and December takes over.*”* During mid-term years since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged a monthly price gain of 2.5% in October, 2.4% in November and 1.4% in December, according to CFRA Research. "Therefore, history says, but does not guarantee, that we could see an extended rebound from the current downturn," CFRA's chief investment strategist Sam Stovall says. ## What investors should do now Don't be fooled: The [volatility](https://money.com/stock-market-volatility-investing-tips/) investors have been feeling in the market likely isn't over. In fact, history tells us that October tends to be extra volatile for stocks. Even though timing the market can be tempting, [financial advisors](https://money.com/how-to-choose-a-financial-advisor/) usually recommend not basing your investment plan on market moves like seasonal trends. Instead, they say the best investing strategy is to focus on your goals, time horizon and risk tolerance, and ensure you have a well-diversified portfolio that can weather volatility over the long term. ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/stocks-rally-history-end-of-year/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Economy and Politics", "item": "https://money.com/economy-and-politics/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Stock Market", "item": "https://money.com/stock-market/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Will Stocks Rally to Close out 2022? 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