Panic at the Checkout: What America Is Racing to Buy Before Trump Tariffs Hit
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Retail sales surged last month as Americans binge-bought everything from lawnmowers to lacrosse sticks ahead of widespread tariffs.
The Commerce Department released data on Wednesday that showed a big jump in the amount of money Americans spent in March. Overall retail sales rose 1.4% from a month earlier. Economists had expected a 1.2% increase, which would have been high for a month-to-month reading. The actual data blew past that estimation.
“We had a good pop this month, primarily because of accelerated purchases by consumers trying to get ahead of the tariffs,” says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Much of March’s 1.4% monthly jump — the largest in more than two years — was driven by a surge in car-buying. But autos weren't all that Americans scrambled to purchase ahead of the implementation of tariffs. Even with cars out of the picture, retail sales increased by 0.5% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago.
“Pre-tariff purchases continued to support spending on non-auto goods in [the first three months of 2025],” Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a research note. Some of that spending was significant, Allen added, noting that the 3.3% monthly jump at hardware and garden stores marked the biggest increase in four years for that category.
“I do think the bigger ticket categories on a year-over-year basis looked interesting and might reflect people trying to get ahead of tariffs,” says Joe Feldman, senior managing director, assistant director of research and retail analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, pointing to figures like a 7.7% jump in furniture-store sales from a year ago. “It definitely feels like we're seeing some of that now,” he adds.
The category encompassing sporting goods, musical instrument, hobby and bookstores had a 2.4% jump from February to March. Spending at electronics and appliance stores also ticked up for the month, although at a more modest 0.8% rate.
The expected increase in prices for everything from stoves to smartphones (in spite of President Trump’s on-again, off-again promise of exemptions) has been well-documented. But experts also have been warning that musical instruments and sports gear could get pricier — even when those items are made in the U.S. For instance, some guitars produced by manufacturer Fender are assembled here, but many of the components and raw materials are imported, one expert said.
Based on what Americans bought in March, Stovall says some indicators suggest consumers are preparing for a period of financial austerity. “I think people are paying attention to the news headlines about the fear of recession and as a result are hunkering down,” he says, pointing to the increased sales at stores that sell hobby and leisure goods.
“What that probably means is people will be finding ways to entertain themselves,” he says. If a recession is a possibility, people don't plan on traveling and spending a lot of money for experiences … and if they’re buying things, it's to make their staying at home more enjoyable.”
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