--- title: How Do Stocks Perform in March? After a Volatile February, Here's What We Know description: Where is the stock market heading next? Here's what historical trends say about how stocks could perform in March. authors: - name: Mallika Mitra role: Contributing Editor url: https://money.com/author/mallika-mitra/ bio: Mallika Mitra is a contributing editor for Money, based in Chicago. She has covered investing and retirement for seven years and her work has appeared in CNBC, Bloomberg, Kiplinger, AARP, Barron’s, Bankrate, The Daily Upside, ETF.com, The Bond Buyer, PLANADVISER, PLANSPONSOR and Investopedia. education: Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY Kalamazoo College at_money_since: 2020 articles: 395 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - CNBC - Bloomberg - Kiplinger - Barron's - Bankrate - WGN-TV - CBS News Radio - This Morning With Gordon Deal - Everyone's Talkin' Money social: - https://twitter.com/mitra_mallika - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mallika-mitra-4577a386/ editors: - name: Brad Tuttle role: Senior Editor url: https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/ bio: Brad Tuttle is a former senior editor at Money with over 10 years’ experience covering a vast number of personal finance topics, including careers, cars, travel, budgeting, investing, insurance, credit cards, consumer psychology, real estate, banking, and shopping and deals. education: Columbia University School of Journalism, MS at_money_since: 2014 articles: 366 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology social: - https://twitter.com/bradrtuttle - https://linkedin.com/in/brad-tuttle-834b225 former_staff: true published: '2023-02-28T17:17:54.000Z' modified: '2024-01-10T13:44:48.000Z' section: Economy and Politics tags: - News - stocks word_count: 558 canonical: https://money.com/where-stock-market-heading-march-2023/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Person standing on top of and oversized march 2023 calendar overlooking stock market graphics in the shape of mountains](https://img.money.com/2023/02/News-How-Stocks-Perform-March.jpg) February has proved to be another volatile month for the stock market. After a rough 2022 for investors — the stock market's [worst year since 2008](https://money.com/investor-tips-after-stocks-worst-year/) — the [S&P 500](https://money.com/how-to-invest-in-sp500/) [kicked off this year with a strong start,](https://money.com/will-stock-market-rally-last/) closing up around 6% at the end of January. But the rally lost some steam in February amid fears that interest rates will remain higher for longer, with the S&P 500, a benchmark index for U.S. [stocks](https://money.com/how-to-buy-stocks/) overall, up just around 4% since the start of 2023 as of midday Tuesday. What's in store for the stock market in March? Here's what history tells us. ## The stock market in March: historical trends From 1983 onward, the S&P 500 has tended to see most of its March gains in the second half of the month, strategists from Bespoke Investment Group wrote in a note to clients Monday. - Historically, the S&P 500's average return has been only modestly positive two weeks into the month, "but trends steadily higher from there finishing the month with an average gain of 1.14% and positive returns 64% of the time," the strategists said. - Average returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (another of the three main benchmark indexes used to measure overall U.S. stock performance) in March tend to be better than those in February and "right in the middle of the pack versus other months," the strategists wrote. - Over the last century, the Dow has been positive during March 58% of the time, according to data compiled by Bespoke. The frequency of those positive returns jumps to 64% when looking at the last 50 years and 65% when looking at the last 20 years. - Do stocks' January and February performances impact this trend historically? Not too much. The strategists wrote that whether the S&P 500 was up or down year-to-date going into March had little impact on the month's overall returns. However, stocks were a lot less volatile during the month in the years that stocks were already higher headed into March. ## What this means for investors Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, so while this analysis can give us some insight, investors shouldn't expect stocks to behave the same way every year. All eyes are still on the Federal Reserve and its next moves regarding interest rates. The Fed has been hiking interest rates to battle inflation since early 2022, and though the [most recent rate hike](https://money.com/fed-interest-rate-hike-february-2023/) was significantly smaller than the ones we saw last year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear that more interest rate increases are likely. Interest rate hikes tend to weigh on the price of financial assets like stocks and [bonds](https://money.com/buying-bonds-great-investing-move/) — a trend we've certainly seen play out over the last year. - As the Fed continues to wrestle with inflation, market experts say [volatility is likely to continue](https://money.com/will-stock-market-rally-last/). - [Financial advisors](https://money.com/how-to-choose-a-financial-advisor/) usually recommend maintaining a long-term approach to investing, rather than trying to time the market based on historical trends or the latest headlines. - The best move for most investors is to maintain a diversified portfolio that aligns with their goals and risk tolerance, and [stick to their strategy](https://money.com/why-investing-should-not-feel-exciting/) through the market's ups and downs. ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/where-stock-market-heading-march-2023/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Economy and Politics", "item": "https://money.com/economy-and-politics/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Stock Market", "item": "https://money.com/stock-market/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "How Do Stocks Perform in March? 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