Grocery Prices Are Finally Expected to Cool This Year. Just Not for These Staples
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After years of unrelenting price hikes, the cost of groceries is finally expected to level out in 2026, with food-at-home inflation dipping below the average.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is predicting that grocery prices will rise approximately 1.7% in 2026, marking a decrease from 2.3% in 2025 and from the 20-year average of 2.6%.
This moderation comes as relief for Americans who have been watching their grocery costs inflate by more than 25% over the past five years.
Much of the easing comes from plummeting prices for eggs and dairy products, which are actually expected to deflate this year, by 22.2% and 0.9%, respectively, according to the USDA.
On the other hand, some grocery prices are jumping much higher than normal. Here are a few foods that didn’t get the cost-cooling memo.
Red meats
The USDA expects prices to jump for all meats — including seafood and poultry — by 4.3% in 2026, higher than the average of 3.1%.
Looking closer, a few specific types of red meat are largely to blame. Beef and veal prices are predicted to soar 9.4%, while the cost of other meats like processed cold cuts and hot dogs will rise 4.3%.
Meanwhile, fish and seafood prices are expected to increase by a lower-than-average 2.4%. Pork may get 0.3% cheaper.
Beef, in particular, has been stubbornly expensive lately. Analysts say farmers have been dealing with droughts, high interest rates and shrinking herds, causing prices to soar.
Sweets
Got a sweet tooth? I have some bad news for you.
Sugars and sweets, such as candy, cookies and other desserts, are in line for big price hikes. The USDA says the cost for these types of items will go up 6.7%, more than doubling the historical average of 3.1%.
According to the World Economic Forum, climate-change induced droughts are affecting sugar production overseas, and at home, the U.S. maintains a longtime trade policy that restricts the amount of sugar food companies can import. Both factors are pushing prices up.
Non-alcoholic drinks
Juices, coffee, teas, sodas and other drinks are about to get more expensive.
The USDA categorizes these broadly under “non-alcoholic beverages” and estimates that prices will rise 4.2% this year. Historically, prices for these drinks tend to increase 2.4% annually. Last year, they rose 3.8%.
Other foods
The USDA tracks the prices of 15 subcategories of foods. These largely consist of meat, dairy, eggs, fats, oils, fruits, vegetables, sugar, sweets, cereals, bakery products and non-alcoholic beverages.
Groceries such as condiments, spices, sauces, snacks, bars and other products that don’t fit into the above categories are simply labeled as “other foods.”
Combined, prices for these types of groceries are estimated to increase 3.1% this year — much higher than last year’s 0.9% as well as the historical average of 2.4%.
PepsiCo, the maker of Lay's, Doritos and other major snack brands, is trying to buck that trend. Earlier this month, the company said it is cutting the price of many snacks by up to 15%.
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