Is July A Good Time to Refinance Your Mortgage?

Refinancing your mortgage can provide a lot of advantages, from lower monthly payments to being able to take equity out of your home for major repairs or unexpected expenses. With interest rates currently averaging 2.88%, it’s a great time to reevaluate your home loan and see if a refi is the right option for you.

Ever since the pandemic hit and mortgage rates crashed, homeowners have flocked to mortgage lenders looking for a loan refinance. Applications for refis made up 64% of all home loan requests for the week ending July 9, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, while the number of refinance applications increased by 20% from the previous week. In fact, refinance applications have made up at least 60% of all loan originations for more than a year.

While plenty of homeowners have already taken advantage of the opportunity provided by low interest rates, there are many more who stand to benefit from a mortgage refinance. As of late June, there were 12.2 million homeowners who can qualify for a meaningfully lower interest rate on their home loans and save an aggregate of $3.4 billion in monthly payments, according to data analytics firm Black Knight.

With the potential to save hundreds of dollars on your monthly payments, it makes sense to at the very least check out your mortgage refinance options.

If your current mortgage rate is above 3.88%, now is a good time to refinance

Mortgage rates for well-qualified borrowers have been hovering around 3% for the past three months. The current average for a 30-year fixed-rate loan is 2.88%, the lowest it's been since the middle of February. With no indication that rates will be rising significantly in the near future, you should take the time to find out if a refinance makes sense.

One of the indications that a refinance is a good idea is if you can reduce your current interest rate by at least 0.5% to 1%.

If you have a $300,000 balance on your mortgage and you refinance to a new 30-year loan, lowering your interest rate from 3.75% to 3.25% will save around $84 per month or $1,008 per year. If you can reduce the rate by 1%, from 3.75% to 2.75%, your monthly savings would be $165 per month or $1,980 per year.

Of course, you don’t have to refinance into another 30-year loan. If your finances have improved and you can afford higher monthly payments you can refinance your 30-year loan into a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, which will allow you to pay the loan off faster and also pay less interest.

Taking a look at your monthly savings is just one part of the refi equation, however. You also need to factor in the cost of switching out your loan and how long it will take you to recover those costs, or ‘break even’.

Just as with a purchase loan, you’ll have to pay closing costs on a refinance. These costs can include origination and applications fees, appraisal and inspection costs and title search fees. In all, closing costs can run between 3% and 6% of the total loan amount being refinanced.

You can determine your breakeven point by dividing your total closing costs by the amount you’ll save each month. The result is the number of months it will take you to recoup the refinance cost and start saving money. The less time it takes to break even, the more sense it makes to refinance your home loan.

The final piece of the refi puzzle is balancing your refinance goals with the change in the length of the loan. For example, if you are 10 years into a 30-year mortgage, refinancing into another 30-year loan means you’ll be paying a mortgage for 40 years instead of 30.

If your primary reason is reducing your monthly payment, refinancing into another 30-mortgage makes sense. However, if your goal is to save on interest and reduce the term of your loan, then refinancing a 30-year into a 15-year mortgage may be the better option, as long as you can afford the higher monthly payments. Use a mortgage refinance calculator to get a sense of what might work for you.

Are mortgage refinance rates still low?

When the COVID-19 pandemic first hit in March of last year, the Federal Reserve devised a monetary policy to help stabilize financial markets and soften the economic impact of the virus. Part of that policy included reducing the federal funds rate — the interest rate banks charge each other for short-term loans — to near zero.

The Fed also pledged to purchase $40 billion worth of mortgage backed securities, Treasury notes and other financial instruments per month to inject money into the economy and encourage investing and lending.

As a result, yields on the 10-year Treasury notes dropped below 1%, placing more downward pressure on interest rates and mortgage rates in particular. Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasuries, with loan rates averaging around 1.8 percentage points higher than yields. The lower the yield, the lower the interest rate.

The net effect of these policies was to drive mortgage rates down, with the average rate for a 30-year dropping below 3% for the first time in history on July 16, 2020. Rates reached a record low of 2.65% on January 7 of this year.

Since then, rates have climbed, briefly rising above 3% in March and April before diving back under 3% to the current average of 2.88%.

Treasury yields have also made a comeback, rising from an all-time low of 0.48% early in the pandemic to averaging between 1.3% and 1.5%. However, both yields and rates seem to have reached a plateau, with very little significant, sustained movement either up or down.

Still, if you’re considering a refinance, it may be best to act sooner rather than later. Economists agree that mortgage rates will start to increase, most likely sometime during the third quarter, with rates ending the year at around 3.5%

How to Know When to Refinance Your Mortgage

Here are some key points you should consider when deciding whether to refinance your mortgage:

• Your credit score. With most mortgage lenders, you’ll need a credit score of at least 620 to qualify for a mortgage refinance. To get the lowest mortgage rate, you’ll need a 740. Also keep in mind that, if your credit is lower than it was when you took out your current mortgage, you may not qualify for as favorable a rate as you did before.
• Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI). For conventional loans, some lenders will work with a DTI as high as 43%. FHA loans will go a little higher, usually accepting DTIs of 50%. Lower, however, is generally better.
• How long you’re staying. When you refinance, you’ll need to pay closing costs. If you plan to move out in the near future, you may not breakeven.
• How much equity you have in your home. In order to qualify for a mortgage refinance you generally need at least 20% equity in your home.

Don’t try to time the market. Waiting on rate swings is as troublesome as timing the stock market. Don’t wait to see what happens with mortgage rates tomorrow if you can save money or move closer to your financial goals by refinancing today.