Here's Why the U.S. Will (Probably) Dodge a Recession in 2026

There’s no Magic 8 Ball economists can shake to be completely sure about the direction of the U.S. economy, but many have expressed cautious optimism for the year ahead.

And, crucially, most believe that we'll be able to avoid a recession.

Growth is expected to slow but not outright reverse — which is a sunnier outlook than most experts had adopted earlier this year. Last month, economic forecasters polled by the National Association for Business Economics projected a median 2% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2026, an uptick from the 1.3% growth rate they projected back in June.

"We actually believe that economic growth estimates for next year are probably too low," says Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs. "I think we’ll probably see 2.5% to 3% [GDP] growth in 2026."

Underpinning Helfstein's bright outlook is the assumption that Americans will keep spending — and his hope that the rate of inflation will ease. If these factors support continued GDP growth, that means the U.S. won't have a recession, which is unofficially defined as six months or more of the economy shrinking (rather than growing).

"Our base case is no recession for 2026. We think we can avoid it with the fiscal stimulus that’s coming," says Adam Turnquist, chief technical analyst at LPL Financial.

Turnquist says the tax cuts Congress passed over the summer have the potential to boost economic activity next year by growing the spending power of everyday consumers who have been squeezed by elevated inflation.

In addition, the combination of corporate tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and more clarity around regulatory issues will give businesses both the capital and the confidence to invest more, Turnquist adds.

This sense of optimism is all the more surprising given that economists’ expectations for the last three months of 2025 have been much more volatile than usual due to the unprecedented 43-day government shutdown. The New York Fed’s Nowcast tool forecasts a 1.7% growth rate for the last three months of 2025, but that figure could have been 1.5 percentage points higher if not not for the unprecedented 43-day government shutdown, a Congressional Budget Office report found.

That said, experts do remain concerned about the bifurcated economy. Even as wealthier households keep overall consumer spending healthy, “lower-income households face intensifying pressure from elevated prices and interest rates,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, wrote in his most recent outlook.

This worries analysts because the more people with enough money to spend on extras like vacations, concert tickets and electronics, the healthier the economy will be. While a small number of rich people splurging freely is better than nothing at all, a broad base of people who have some extra cash and the confidence to spend it is more effective at creating the demand for goods and services that powers job creation.

Looking ahead, experts highlight a couple of what-ifs they're watching that could cause the economy to fall into a recession in 2026.

2026 recession chances if inflation stays elevated — or rises

A recent Deloitte analysis predicts economic growth of just 1.4% in 2026. Although that's not a recession, it’s also not exactly the kind of number that makes executives and investors pop corks.

Deloitte says higher tariffs and reduced immigration will likely keep inflation elevated next year. Higher inflation weighs on consumer spending, making people shop less, and can lead to higher mortgage rates and credit card APRs if policymakers maintain or raise interest rates to cool it down.

Its analysts expect the average tariff rate next year to be higher in spite of new trade deals being forged, because companies were able to partially mitigate the effects of tariffs in 2025 by stocking up and pre-buying inventory — preparation that obviously can’t be repeated for 2026.

“For now, the effective tariff rate for the U.S. is coming in below feared numbers. It's still double digits and a massive increase, but better than expected… that’s really been a surprise," Turnquist says. "However, when you think about inflation, we’re still nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target."

Along with the tariff effect, Deloitte also projects sharply lower immigration due to the Trump administration's efforts to slow immigration and deport undocumented immigrants, calculating an expected net immigration rate of 3.3 million adults through 2030 versus the 6.8 million it projected just a year ago. A smaller labor pool increases demand for workers, especially in industries like construction and agriculture, so employers have to pay more to attract and keep people.

Higher paychecks for builders and farmhands, while good for individual workers, have the aggregate effect of driving up prices when companies pass their higher labor costs onto customers.

2026 recession chances if unemployment spikes

In spite of the expectation that companies' spending on AI will continue and spread to a larger swath of the economy, the momentum this is expected to provide could be derailed.

If corporate earnings — which have so far largely remained healthy — tumble and companies start slashing jobs, higher unemployment could chill the economy as laid-off workers, along with people who still have jobs but fear losing them, cut their spending. According to Helfstein, a floundering job market is the biggest risk the economy faces this year.

Although layoffs have been rising, Helfstein says this isn’t cause for alarm — not yet, at least.

“We haven't seen the downward cascade that would generally happen if companies were really concerned about controlling their cost structures,” he says. Much of the layoff activity taking place now, he contends, is a function of companies unwinding some of the hiring surge they undertook immediately following the pandemic rather than a symptom of broad economic malaise.

Helfstein also argues that, as the gig economy matures, it will help ease the next labor market downturn, whenever that may be.

“The ability of the on-demand market — and for people — to generate income outside of the conventional channels of the job market, creates a bit of a buffer," he says.

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