These 15 Retailers May Not Survive 2018
Retailer bankruptcies seriously piled up in 2017: A total of 50 major store chains, including iconic players like Toys R Us and Payless Shoes, filed for bankruptcy protection last year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That's up from 47 retailer bankruptcies in 2016 and only 30 in 2014.
The bad news is that 2018 is expected to be another brutal year for retailers, with even more bankruptcies and thousands of store closures likely.
Analysts say that American shopping centers are simply overbuilt, and that it's particularly difficult for all of the stores to survive in the era of increased competition from Amazon and other online retailers. That's why so many stores were at high risk for bankruptcy in 2017, and why the pace of retailer bankruptcies could increase this year.
S&P Global Market Intelligence recently published a list of the 15 retailers that are most likely to declare bankruptcy in the months ahead. The report includes some companies, such as Sun Pacific, Razer, and Clarus, that are better known as manufacturers but have a small retail presence. Here is S&P's top 15, ranked in order by the probability they will default in the next year.
[UPDATE: After publication of this article, S&P Global Market Intelligence amended its report to remove companies that are not primarily invested in apparel retail. Razer Inc., Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores Inc. and Clarus Corp. do not appear on the updated report.]
1. Sun Pacific Holding Corp. (sports gear and apparel retailer formerly known as EXOlifestyle)
Probability of Default: 44.38%
2. Sears Holding Corp. (Sears and Kmart)
Probability of Default: 25.37%
3. Razer Inc. (tech-related apparel and gear for gamers)
Probability of Default: 22.86%
4. Vince Holding Corp. (luxury fashion retailer)
Probability of Default: 17.94%
5. The Bon-Ton Stores Inc. (department store)
Probability of Default: 12.74%
6. Bebe Stores Inc. (apparel retailer)
Probability of Default: 10.17%
7. Destination Maternity Corp. (maternity clothing retailer)
Probability of Default: 9.34%
8. Destination XL Group Inc. (big and tall men's apparel retailer)
Probability of Default: 8.78%
9. Stein Mart Inc. (department store)
Probability of Default: 8.24%
10. Christopher & Banks Corp. (Minnesota-based women's apparel retailer with 500+ stores nationally)
Probability of Default: 8.04%
11. Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores Inc. (Sears Outlet)
Probability of Default: 7.23%
12. DGSE Cos Inc. (Dallas Gold and Silver Exchange)
Probability of Default: 6.50%
13. Burlington Stores Inc. (formerly Burlington Coat Factory)
Probability of Default: 5.96%
14. Tailored Brands Inc. (Men's Wearhouse, Joseph A. Bank)
Probability of Default: 5.69%
15. Clarus Corp. (outdoors apparel retailer formerly known as Black Diamond)
Probability of Default: 5.36%
This post has been updated to clarify that some companies in S&P’s report are manufacturers with a small retail presence.