Why Both Stocks and Gold Are Rising After the U.S. Attack on Venezuela
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Were you expecting markets to have a ho-hum start to the new year? Better buckle up.
On Monday, the first trading day after the U.S. attack on Venezuela and capture of President Nicolás Maduro, stocks rallied — and gold gained. This dynamic indicates just how much uncertainty investors have to manage as they try to tease out the implications for the stock market and broader economy.
Usually, markets respond negatively to geopolitical shocks, especially those involving oil-producing countries like Venezuela. But the Dow Jones industrial average hit a new all-time-high early Monday, and the other major indices also rose, boosted by the stocks of energy and defense companies.
In this case, even though defense ETFs and the stocks of contractors like Lockheed Martin rose on Monday, traders don’t seem to see Maduro’s capture as the start of a protracted military entanglement with Venezuela, says Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group.
“It’s not troops on the ground, it’s not a continuous [campaign]. It was a surgical strike, and now we’re moving on,” he says.
Instead of fretting about Venezuela, analysts are focused on the outlook for U.S. interest rates and consumer spending, both of which provide reasons to be optimistic.
“I think markets are really looking through and past the strike,” Haworth says. “Fundamentally, markets remain focused on earnings,” he adds, along with the possibility of lower interest rates and tax cuts putting more money in Americans' pockets (and giving companies more money to expand).
The energy sector was the biggest winner as of press time Monday, following a Saturday news conference during which President Donald Trump called on American oil companies to “spend billions of dollars” in Venezuela.
Will the Venezuela attack impact oil and gas prices?
Oil producers like Chevron and Exxon, refiners like Valero and service providers like Halliburton all rallied on Monday. Shares of Chevron, the only American company currently operating in Venezuela, jumped by nearly 10% at one point.
The impact on the price of oil itself, though, was much less dramatic. Benchmark spot oil prices fluctuated over the weekend and inched up slightly on Monday.
Although Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, getting it out of the ground would require significant time and money, according to experts.
“Sanctions, chronic underinvestment and deteriorated infrastructure have curtailed production sharply,” Janus Henderson Investors analysts wrote in a Monday research note.
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There are reasons why American oil companies might be cautious about making major commitments. U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil remain in place, for starters, and oil giants Exxon and ConocoPhillips lost billions when their equipment and assets were confiscated by the Venezuelan government in 2007.
“Not many companies are going to rush to go into an environment where there’s not stability,” one oil executive told the New York Times.
This means that people expecting lower prices at the pump or relief from climbing utility costs are likely to be disappointed.
“The impact on U.S. gasoline prices may ultimately be limited,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a Monday blog post.
Volatility continues to put a shine on gold
In contrast to the muted response of oil prices, gold surged on Monday. The spot price for an ounce of the precious metal rebounded after falling in the final days of 2025 due to a combination of profit-taking and higher margin requirements for leveraged investors.
Monday's rebound erased much of the drop gold sustained after hitting an all-time high of $4,549.71 on Dec. 26.
Gold is typically a safe-haven asset investors buy during times of uncertainty, which likely reflects some of its recovered gains, according to Haworth. (The ongoing tariff volatility since Trump took office for the second time is one reason gold jumped by a remarkable 65% in 2025 in spite of robust stock gains.)
“We require some potential hedge against future risks should the economy slow, [and investors] are also seeking a measure of safety,” he says.
What investors should do after U.S. strikes in Venezuela
While geopolitical shocks like the surprise Venezuela attack can be scary for investors, Haworth says people shouldn’t make any rash moves with their portfolios.
“Stay the course, continue to tilt towards global growth,” he says.
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Events like this weekend’s are a good reminder that although the U.S. might be the world’s largest economy, it doesn’t operate independently of the broader and ever-evolving global economy.
Alongside U.S. equities, American investors would do well to balance growth and risk with a combination of international and fixed-income investments.
“Look for global diversification,” Haworth recommends, adding that interest rates today are high enough that yields from lower-risk assets can meaningfully contribute to a nest egg even as those assets help to manage portfolio risk from exposure to more volatile global stocks.
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