Gas Prices Just Dipped Below $3 for the First Time This Year. Will It Last?
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Gas prices dipped below $3 earlier this week, marking the first time the national average has been under that level this year.
The national average fell to $2.99 on Sunday, according to GasBuddy, a price comparison app. That had not happened since the final days of 2024. Then, on Monday, average gas prices reached the lowest level since 2021 with an intraday mark of $2.97 per gallon.
Other sources have yet to show gas prices drop under $3, though alternative estimates have hovered around that mark. According to AAA, the national average was $3.05 per gallon as of Tuesday; according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the national average was $3.02 as of Monday.
Prices have been trending down this fall as expected. Typically, demand tends to cool after the summer ends, and the transition to cheaper winter-blend gas begins in mid September. This fall, oil prices have also been falling, and the country has been fortunate to avoid gas price disruptions so far from a quiet Atlantic hurricane season.
Before dropping under $3 over the weekend, average gas prices had hovered between $3 and roughly $3.25 all year.
As gas prices fell, the White House quickly seized on the opportunity to celebrate the news of sub-$3 gas, arguing it's proof that the president's "relentless commitment to American energy production pays off."
However, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, is pushing back on these claims.
"It's a global commodity," he wrote in a post on X Monday. "There hasn't been a major policy that's changed anything to date."
De Haan added that "Trump's benefitted primarily from OPEC raising production," referring to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Where are gas prices headed now through the end of the year?
By Tuesday, GasBuddy's data was showing prices back above $3. But experts say a sustained period of sub-$3 gas is possible this fall and winter — if oil prices stay low.
Oil was trading at $57 per barrel on Tuesday, according to the West Texas Intermediate measure, a benchmark widely used by analysts. That's about $13 lower than a year ago. The difference matters for drivers because crude oil is the main component responsible for the retail price of gasoline. (The unpredictable nature of oil markets is just one of the reasons that predicting gas prices is always difficult.)
"Barring any major disruptions, gas prices are likely to remain slightly below year-ago levels and could stay under $3 for much of the next few months," De Haan wrote in GasBuddy's blog post Monday.
Earlier in the month, AAA experts shared a similar analysis of the rosy fuel price outlook. Citing solid gasoline inventories as well as the annual fuel blend change, the auto club reports that "consumers are likely to see even lower prices at the pump in the coming weeks."
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