--- title: 'Here''s How Low Stocks Could Go if We Have a Recession: Analyst Forecast' description: Are we in a recession? The answer could have a big impact on if stocks go up or drop. Here are predictions and analyses from Goldman Sachs. authors: - name: Sarah Hansen role: Senior Writer url: https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/ bio: Sarah Hansen is a senior writer at Money covering all things personal finance. Previously, she covered economic policy and capital markets on the breaking news desk at Forbes. education: Northwestern University, New York University at_money_since: 2021 articles: 347 covers: - Investing - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Insurance - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes social: - https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-m-hansen/ former_staff: true published: '2022-08-10T19:36:14.000Z' modified: '2024-01-10T17:37:43.000Z' section: Investing tags: - News - stocks word_count: 430 canonical: https://money.com/how-low-stocks-could-go-recession/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Divergent road traffic sign with and a stock market chart in the background](https://img.money.com/2022/08/News-2022-SP-500-Future.jpg?crop=0px%2C82px%2C2534px%2C1425px&quality=85) Stocks popped in the aftermath of Wednesday’s better-than-expected [inflation data](https://money.com/august-inflation-report-stocks-higher/), but that hardly means investors are in the clear. New analyses predict that the [stock market](https://money.com/how-to-buy-stocks/) could plunge once again if the economy enters a [recession](https://money.com/nobody-can-agree-us-recession/). In a research note this week, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin laid out two different forecasts: one if we [have a recession](https://money.com/are-we-in-a-recession/), and one if we do not. If we manage to avoid a recession, Kostin predicts the [S&P 500](https://money.com/how-to-invest-in-sp500/?ref=/stocks-rallying-bear-market-ending/) — an index commonly used as a benchmark for how stocks are performing overall — will end 2022 at 4,300 points, down roughly 10% from the beginning of January and up about 2% from the index’s level at midday on Wednesday. That forecast is based on relatively strong company earnings, which haven’t been stellar but are surpassing analysts’ expectations. If a recession does come to pass, however, the analysts say the S&P 500 could plunge to 3,150 — an eye-watering loss of 34% for the year. (For context, in June the S&P 500 officially [entered a bear market](https://money.com/investing-moves-bear-market-stocks/) — dropping at least 20% from a recent high — and the [S&P falls by an average of 35%](https://money.com/bear-markets-length-stock-returns/) in a typical bear market.) Analysts at Morgan Stanley are predicting even greater losses in the market this year if there's a recession. They’re forecasting the S&P 500 will fall to 3,000, according to a recent [Bloomberg report](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-13/deutsche-bank-says-weak-us-corporate-earnings-largely-priced-in). ## Are we headed for a recession? Goldman’s experts say there’s about a 30% chance that the United States enters a recession over the next year, but there are a variety of opinions on the matter. Some say we’re [already in a recession](https://money.com/nobody-can-agree-us-recession/), while others — including members of the Biden administration — are adamant that a strong jobs market means a recession is not in the cards, at least for now. The economic numbers from June “do not seem to indicate a recession,” according to a recent [blog post](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/08/are-we-in-a-recession-yet/) from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. And the committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is tasked with making the official call about [whether we’re in a recession](https://money.com/coronavirus-recession-vs-depression-economy/), has not done so. Recession or no, the [volatility in the stock market](https://money.com/stock-market-volatility-investing-tips/) this year, and the likelihood of more volatility down the line, mean it’s probably a good idea to [check in on your portfolio](https://money.com/mid-year-portfolio-checkup/). ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/how-low-stocks-could-go-recession/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Investing", "item": "https://money.com/investing/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Stocks", "item": "https://money.com/stocks/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Here's How Low Stocks Could Go if We Have a Recession: Analyst Forecast" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/how-low-stocks-could-go-recession/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/how-low-stocks-could-go-recession/", "name": "Here's How Low Stocks Could Go if We Have a Recession: Analyst Forecast", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2022-08-10T19:36:14.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/how-low-stocks-could-go-recession/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/how-low-stocks-could-go-recession/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2024-01-10T17:37:43.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Here's How Low Stocks Could Go if We Have a Recession: Analyst Forecast", "articleSection": "Investing", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2022/08/News-2022-SP-500-Future.jpg?crop=0px%2C82px%2C2534px%2C1425px&quality=85", "width": 1012, "height": 569, "caption": "News-2022-SP-500-Future" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Sarah Hansen", "url": "https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/#author", "description": "Sarah Hansen is a senior writer at Money covering all things personal finance. 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