--- title: Here's How Low Mortgage Rates Could Drop in 2023, According to One Expert description: Mortgage rates will drop back below 6% soon and average about 5.7% for 2023, according to one NAR economist's forecast. authors: - name: Sarah Hansen role: Senior Writer url: https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/ bio: Sarah Hansen is a senior writer at Money covering all things personal finance. Previously, she covered economic policy and capital markets on the breaking news desk at Forbes. education: Northwestern University, New York University at_money_since: 2021 articles: 347 covers: - Mortgages - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes social: - https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-m-hansen/ former_staff: true editors: - name: Brad Tuttle role: Senior Editor url: https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/ bio: Brad Tuttle is a former senior editor at Money with over 10 years’ experience covering a vast number of personal finance topics, including careers, cars, travel, budgeting, investing, insurance, credit cards, consumer psychology, real estate, banking, and shopping and deals. education: Columbia University School of Journalism, MS at_money_since: 2014 articles: 366 covers: - Mortgages - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology social: - https://twitter.com/bradrtuttle - https://linkedin.com/in/brad-tuttle-834b225 former_staff: true published: '2023-01-09T16:16:08.000Z' modified: '2024-01-10T13:34:47.000Z' section: Mortgages tags: - mortgage rates - News word_count: 365 canonical: https://money.com/mortgage-rates-forecast-drop-2023/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We may earn a fee if you click on the links below. Compensation does not determine ranking. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Row of houses with garbage and recycling bins on roadside.](https://img.money.com/2023/01/News-Mortgage-Rates-Drop-Below-6.jpg) [Mortgage rates](https://money.com/current-mortgage-rates/) more than doubled in 2022, but hopeful homebuyers may soon see some relief from sky-high borrowing costs. Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is forecasting that mortgage rates will drop below 6% in the spring and summer months of 2023. She cites easing inflation and smaller [rate hikes by the Federal Reserve](https://money.com/fed-interest-rate-hike-december-2022/) as the reasons the drop is likely. This week, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.48%, according to [data](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms) from Freddie Mac. The rate means that the buyer of a median-priced home (one that costs around $416,000 right now, according to Realtor.com) is facing a mortgage payment that is 64% higher than it was a year ago, Realtor.com senior economist George Ratiu noted in a [blog post](https://www.realtor.com/research/freddie-mac-mortgage-rates-jan-5-2023/) this week. Evangelou expects rates to average around 5.7% in 2023. That’s significantly higher than the rates around 3.5% that buyers saw in the first months of 2022, but it’s also a far cry from the rates that climbed above 7% last fall. “Housing affordability is going to be the main driver of the housing market in 2023,” Evangelou said in email commentary shared with Money. She notes that mortgage rates near 6% will mean more families can afford to buy homes this year, but adds that others — and especially [first-time homebuyers](https://money.com/first-time-homebuyer-programs/) — will continue to struggle. That could be the case even as [home price growth levels off](https://money.com/housing-market-2023-expert-predictions/) this year. Inventory constraints, which are expected to worsen as more buyers enter the market while sellers sit on the sidelines and wait for rates to fall even further, are the culprit. “The market will likely become more competitive over the next few months,” Seattle Redfin agent Shoshana Godwin said in a [blog post](https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-home-sales-drop/) on Thursday. “I expect new listings to remain scarce as homeowners hold onto low interest rates while the pool of determined buyers circle the few homes that are available.” [Here's How Many Homeowners Could Be Stuck With 'Underwater' Mortgages in 2023](https://money.com/homes-owners-underwater-mortgages-2023/) [5 Expert Predictions for the Housing Market in 2023](https://money.com/housing-market-2023-expert-predictions/) [9 Best Home Equity Loans of January 2023](https://money.com/best-home-equity-loans/) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-forecast-drop-2023/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Mortgages", "item": "https://money.com/mortgages/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Mortgage Rates", "item": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Here's How Low Mortgage Rates Could Drop in 2023, According to One Expert" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-forecast-drop-2023/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-forecast-drop-2023/", "name": "Here's How Low Mortgage Rates Could Drop in 2023, According to One Expert", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2023-01-09T16:16:08.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-forecast-drop-2023/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-forecast-drop-2023/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2024-01-10T13:34:47.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Here's How Low Mortgage Rates Could Drop in 2023, According to One Expert", "articleSection": "Mortgages", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2023/01/News-Mortgage-Rates-Drop-Below-6.jpg", "width": 1845, "height": 1230, "caption": "News-Mortgage-Rates-Drop-Below-6" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Sarah Hansen", "url": "https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/#author", "description": "Sarah Hansen is a senior writer at Money covering all things personal finance. 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