--- title: What's Next for Mortgage Rates? Zillow Expert Says 2024 Could Be a 'Turning Point' description: Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, says this year isn’t likely to repeat the same pattern as last when it comes to mortgage rates. authors: - name: Leslie Cook role: Editor, Real Estate url: https://money.com/author/leslie-cook/ bio: Leslie Cook is Money’s lead real estate editor covering trends in the housing market, mortgage rates and real estate. She also writes about home renovation trends and tips. education: Bryn Mawr College, BA History certifications: Certified Personal Finance Counselor at_money_since: 2019 articles: 798 covers: - Mortgages - Banking - Credit - Economy and Politics - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Loans - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Taxes social: - https://twitter.com/LeslieLCook - https://www.linkedin.com/in/leslie-cook-9829b9198/ editors: - name: Julia Glum role: Managing Editor url: https://money.com/author/julia-glum/ bio: Julia Glum joined Money in 2018 and specializes in covering financial trends that affect everyday Americans' wallets. She also writes Dollar Scholar, a weekly newsletter that teaches young adults how to navigate the messy world of money. education: University of Florida at_money_since: 2018 articles: 453 covers: - Mortgages - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - Newsweek - International Business Times - CBS News - Good Morning America - WUSA9 - Pix 11 - The New York Times - Mashable - The Washington Post - CNBC - Politico social: - https://x.com/superjulia - https://www.linkedin.com/in/julia-glum published: '2024-01-10T15:45:29.000Z' modified: '2024-01-10T15:45:29.000Z' section: Mortgages tags: - News word_count: 554 canonical: https://money.com/mortgage-rates-zillow-prediction/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We may earn a fee if you click on the links below. Compensation does not determine ranking. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![A graph made of houses with a percentage sign in the background.](https://img.money.com/2024/01/News-Zillow-Economist-Mortgage-Rates.jpg) Last year ended on a positive note for many homebuyers. After briefly [flirting with 8%](https://money.com/8-percent-mortgage-rates/) in October, mortgage rates had dropped by more than 1 percentage point by the end of December, prompting a small housing market revival and hopes for an even bigger comeback in 2024. The question, of course, is whether those lower rates will hang around. After all, 2023 started with rates just above 6% (and the expectation of them going even lower) — but then they turned around and headed higher. Will [this year](https://money.com/housing-market-forecast-2024/) be any different? According to Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, this year isn’t likely to repeat the same pattern as last. Rather, she says, “a good characterization of how to think about \[2024\] would be as another turning-point year.” The turnabout has everything to do with interest rates: [Current mortgage rates](https://money.com/current-mortgage-rates/) have dropped from 7.79% to 6.62% over the past two months — a significant change over a relatively short time period. And amid economic growth and gains in the fight against inflation, most industry analysts look forward to continued improvement. But we shouldn’t necessarily expect rates to sustain that fast rate of decline. Olsen points out that the current slide started due to the government’s decision to sell fewer Treasury bonds on the market, which pushed the price up but the yield on the bonds down (taking mortgage rates down, as well). “So we got this lovely surprise that helped the 10-year \[Treasury\] fall, and we’re not at 8% anymore,” says Olsen, who spoke to Money in late November. As the economy continues to slowly settle and the Federal Reserve holds off on further rate hikes, she adds, “that slope of improvement will be more gradual.” In other words, we shouldn’t expect mortgage rates to return to the record lows of the pandemic years (unless something drastic and unpredictable happens). But lower rates are already impacting would-be buyers: Monthly payments have dropped by several hundred dollars as a result and are easing the affordability crunch many aspiring homebuyers feel. Home sellers are also benefiting from the improved rate environment. The keywords for homeowners last year were “the [locked-in](https://money.com/low-mortgage-rates-trap-home-sellers/) effect.” People who bought a home with a 3% or 4% rate weren’t willing to sell and buy a new one at 7% or 7.5%. And to be clear, many who bought at those ultra-low rates still remain firmly locked in. But some sellers who bought at slightly higher rates may now realize that rates won’t get near pandemic lows again, and they’re readjusting their rate expectation when it comes to feeling comfortable about selling. “What we’re seeing is that what they consider a low-enough rate is increasing because our expectation of getting back to low rates is shedding,” says Olsen. “If we don’t expect to get back to 5%, \[a rate of\] 6% looks OK. It’s like, what are you waiting for?” The change in seller attitude is already being seen in small increases in new home listings over the past few months, which bodes well for a market that has been inventory-deprived for years. This “turning point” of a year could be quite positive… if current rate and listing trends hold. ![](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/26681/medium_57f09f10-efb8-487d-a73e-5f7d605144eb.png) Imagine finally owning your dream home — Rocket Mortgage (NMLS #3030) can help! [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/t39f99e0e0ab?ap_referrer=%2Fmortgage-rates-zillow-prediction%2F) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-zillow-prediction/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Mortgages", "item": "https://money.com/mortgages/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Mortgage Rates", "item": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "What's Next for Mortgage Rates? Zillow Expert Says 2024 Could Be a 'Turning Point'" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-zillow-prediction/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-zillow-prediction/", "name": "What's Next for Mortgage Rates? Zillow Expert Says 2024 Could Be a 'Turning Point'", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2024-01-10T15:45:29.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-zillow-prediction/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-zillow-prediction/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2024-01-10T15:45:29.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "What's Next for Mortgage Rates? Zillow Expert Says 2024 Could Be a 'Turning Point'", "articleSection": "Mortgages", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2024/01/News-Zillow-Economist-Mortgage-Rates.jpg", "width": 2880, "height": 1920, "caption": "News-Zillow-Economist-Mortgage-Rates" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Leslie Cook", "url": "https://money.com/author/leslie-cook/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/leslie-cook/#author", "description": "Leslie Cook is Money’s lead real estate editor covering trends in the housing market, mortgage rates and real estate. She also writes about home renovation trends and tips.", "image": "https://img.money.com/2020/04/Money_Headshots_2025-46.jpg?quality=85&w=640&h=640&crop=1", "email": "leslie@money.com", "jobTitle": "Editor, Real Estate", "hasCredential": [ { "@type": "EducationalOccupationalCredential", "credentialCategory": "certification", "name": "Certified Personal Finance Counselor" } ], "alumniOf": "Bryn Mawr College, BA History", "sameAs": [ "https://twitter.com/LeslieLCook", "https://www.linkedin.com/in/leslie-cook-9829b9198/" ], "worksFor": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } } ], "publisher": "https://money.com/#organization", "datePublished": "2024-01-10T15:45:29.000Z", "description": "Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, says this year isn’t likely to repeat the same pattern as last when it comes to mortgage rates.", "abstract": "Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, says this year isn’t likely to repeat the same pattern as last when it comes to mortgage rates.", "@id": "https://money.com/mortgage-rates-zillow-prediction/", "inLanguage": "en-US", "dateModified": "2024-01-10T15:45:29.000Z", "editor": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Julia Glum", "url": "https://money.com/author/julia-glum/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/julia-glum/#author", "description": "Julia Glum joined Money in 2018 and specializes in covering financial trends that affect everyday Americans' wallets. She also writes Dollar Scholar, a weekly newsletter that teaches young adults how to navigate the messy world of money. ", "image": "https://img.money.com/2021/10/a_julia-glum.jpg?quality=85&w=400&h=440&crop=1", "email": "julia.glum@money.com", "jobTitle": "Managing Editor", "alumniOf": "University of Florida", "subjectOf": [ { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.newsweek.com", "name": "Newsweek" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/", "name": "International Business Times" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-office-tax-deduction-who-qualifies/", "name": "CBS News" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/living/story/coupon-queen-woman-tik-tok-share-tips-couponing-66302189", "name": "Good Morning America" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.wusa9.com/video/entertainment/television/programs/great-day-washington/tips-to-being-better-with-money-in-2021/65-a5b83e05-73ba-4d60-b9a8-1d47f9ac6018", "name": "WUSA9" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://pix11.com/news/coronavirus/rebound/making-ends-meet/millenials-taking-biggest-financial-hit-from-pandemic/", "name": "Pix 11" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/10/opinion/active-shooter-drill-schools.html", "name": "The New York Times" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://mashable.com/article/forrest-fenn-treasure-found", "name": "Mashable" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/08/13/theres-an-app-for-that-authorities-say-man-asked-siri-for-help-dumping-body/", "name": "The Washington Post" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/treasure-buried-by-forrest-fenn-finally-found-after-10-years.html", "name": "CNBC" }, { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://www.politico.com/tipsheets/florida-playbook/2017/03/gillum-for-governors-rollout-stumble-florida-woman-gets-trump-shout-out-rubios-tampa-office-problems-218973", "name": "Politico" } ], "sameAs": [ "https://x.com/superjulia", "https://www.linkedin.com/in/julia-glum" ], "worksFor": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } } ], "wordCount": 554, "keywords": [ "News" ], "about": [ { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Mortgage", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage" ] } ] } ] } ```