When Is the Next Fed Meeting, and Will We See Another Rate Cut?

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday as policymakers responded to a weak job market, easing inflation and mounting White House pressure. The target range is now 4% to 4.25%.

The move, widely expected by markets, marks a turning point after almost a year of holding rates steady at the target range of 4.25% to 4.5% — the highest level in nearly two decades.

With the initial cut behind us, attention now shifts to the Fed’s next two meetings in October and December, as investors and economists watch closely for signs of whether policymakers will deliver another cut — or possibly two — before year-end. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that the central bank’s decisions will remain independent and data-based, particularly focusing on inflation’s path back to target and signs of cooling in the labor market rather than political pressure.

In his post-meeting remarks Wednesday, Powell said that the Fed will continue to make decisions on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis, while remaining "well-positioned" to respond to economic developments.

All of this is playing out under heightened political scrutiny, testing the Fed’s insistence on independence. President Donald Trump has escalated his demands for more aggressive rate cuts and repeatedly attacked Powell, previously calling him a "numbskull" for holding rates steady until now. How the Fed navigates this pressure will have real-world consequences, influencing everything from mortgage rates and credit card costs to stock performance and returns on savings.

How many more Fed rate cuts will there be this year?

Following the quarter-point rate cut announced Wednesday, all eyes are on the Fed’s next meeting, set to take place Oct. 28 and 29. The final meeting of the year is scheduled for Dec. 9 and 10.

Wall Street traders broadly expect two additional quarter-point cuts, one after each meeting, which would bring the federal funds rate down by a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year. The probability of quarter-point cuts in October and December currently stand at 93% and 92%, respectively, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Investors are also paying close attention to the Fed’s updated dot plot, which shows us how each of the Federal Open Market Committee members see the trajectory of the central bank’s benchmark rate in the coming months. The June 18 dot plot revealed a consensus among Fed officials for two cuts this year.

However, Wednesday's release was particularly notable because it marked the first time Trump appointee Stephen Miran voted since being sworn in Tuesday morning following a narrow 48-47 Senate confirmation vote. With Miran’s arrival adding a new political dimension to the Fed — he’s the first sitting White House official to join the Fed’s governing board — the new dot plot will be scrutinized not just for its numbers but also for what it signals about the balance of power inside the central bank.

Powell, when asked about whether Miran's addition could compromise the Fed's independence, said, "We're strongly committed to maintaining our independence. And beyond that, I really don't have anything to share."

Miran stood out as the only dissenting vote Wednesday, signaling support for a larger half-point cut rather than the quarter-point cut favored by the rest of the committee. The updated dot plot revealed a wide range of views among Fed officials for 2025. Most still expect moderate easing, but there were two notable outliers.

One official, in what analysts call a “soft dissent,” would have preferred to keep rates at the previous 4.25% to 4% range. On the other end, one policymaker — likely Miran — projected a much steeper cut, pushing rates down to roughly 2.75% to 3% by the end of the year.

How low will interest rates go?

With at least one rate cut already in the books — and markets expecting more — the question now is just how far the Fed might go before the close of 2025.

Some analysts see the federal funds rate dipping to about 3.5%, providing modest stimulus to the economy without letting inflation run too hot. Others expect a slightly higher floor — closer to 3.75% or even 4% — reflecting the central bank’s cautious approach to easing. (The Fed's June projections pointed to a year-end rate near 4%, consistent with only two quarter-point cuts this year).

Ultimately, what happens next will depend on the economy. If hiring slows sharply or unemployment rises, the Fed could decide to cut rates more aggressively to support growth and employment. But if inflation remains stubborn, Fed officials may hold back and move more slowly.

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