--- title: Is a Bull Market Coming for Stocks? Experts Say to Watch for These 5 Signs description: Investors have had a rough year. But experts say these five signs could indicate a new bull market for stocks. authors: - name: Sarah Hansen role: Senior Writer url: https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/ bio: Sarah Hansen is a senior writer at Money covering all things personal finance. Previously, she covered economic policy and capital markets on the breaking news desk at Forbes. education: Northwestern University, New York University at_money_since: 2021 articles: 347 covers: - Investing - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Insurance - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes social: - https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-m-hansen/ former_staff: true editors: - name: Mallika Mitra role: Contributing Editor url: https://money.com/author/mallika-mitra/ bio: Mallika Mitra is a contributing editor for Money, based in Chicago. She has covered investing and retirement for seven years and her work has appeared in CNBC, Bloomberg, Kiplinger, AARP, Barron’s, Bankrate, The Daily Upside, ETF.com, The Bond Buyer, PLANADVISER, PLANSPONSOR and Investopedia. education: Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY Kalamazoo College at_money_since: 2020 articles: 395 covers: - Investing - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - CNBC - Bloomberg - Kiplinger - Barron's - Bankrate - WGN-TV - CBS News Radio - This Morning With Gordon Deal - Everyone's Talkin' Money social: - https://twitter.com/mitra_mallika - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mallika-mitra-4577a386/ published: '2022-10-04T18:08:22.000Z' modified: '2024-01-10T17:41:00.000Z' section: Investing tags: - News - stocks word_count: 751 canonical: https://money.com/signs-new-bull-market/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Photo collage illustration of a bull statue and stock market graphs that imitate the bull's shape](https://img.money.com/2022/09/News-Signs-Stocks-Heading-Bull-Market.jpg?crop=0px%2C169px%2C2880px%2C1620px&quality=85) The last few months have been extremely challenging for investors. The [S&P 500](https://money.com/how-to-invest-in-sp500/) just notched its worst September in 20 years, and the brutal month saw all three major indexes firmly in a [bear market](https://money.com/investing-moves-dow-bear-market/). A perfect storm of factors — think inflation, rising interest rates, the threat of a recession and persistent geopolitical tensions — is to blame for this year’s losses. But there’s good news: Those issues won’t last forever, and neither will the bear market. In fact, the S&P 500 jumped 2.6% on Monday — its biggest one-day gain since July. The index continued its rally during trading Tuesday, as did the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average. While [experts have been warning](https://money.com/wall-street-forecast-stocks-fall-even-further/) that more losses could be on the way, the strong start to the fourth quarter may give some investors hope that the stock market's poor performance could soon be in the rearview mirror. ## 5 signs of a new bull market In a [note](https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/CMO_9-26-22_Merrill.pdf) last week, experts at wealth management firm Merrill laid out five signs they say to keep an eye on and — if and when they happen — could indicate a new bull market is on the way. Niladri Mukherjee, head of portfolio strategy for the firm's chief investment office, and investment strategist Emily Avioli say that a combination of the factors below could “lay the foundation for the next sustained equity market uptrend.” ### Inflation gets closer to the Federal Reserve’s target Right now, core inflation — a measure of consumer price growth that excludes volatile food and energy prices — is hovering above 6%. The Federal Reserve generally aims to keep core inflation around 2%. Merrill’s strategists say that a core inflation rate of around 3% and falling, which is closer to the Fed’s goal, would allow the central bank to loosen its policy and focus on encouraging growth rather than slowing an overheated economy. That could help send [stocks](https://money.com/how-to-buy-stocks/) higher because while interest rate hikes can help curb inflation, they also tend to [bring down the prices of financial assets](https://money.com/inflation-affecting-stock-market-2022/) like stocks. ### Jobless claims peak The strategists suggest keeping a close eye on unemployment claims, which they expect will rise in the near-term as the economy continues to cool. Once “employers see improving prospects for top line growth and hire again” and jobless claims start falling, stocks could see a boost, they write. ### Analysts get more optimistic about corporate earnings Analysts have been increasingly bearish on corporate earnings over the past few months. An economic downturn is bad news for profits and sales, and that’s bad for stocks. When investors feel more confident about corporate profits and analysts boost their outlooks, the strategists say stocks may follow. ### The dollar gets weaker One side effect of a weakening economy has been the [strengthening of the U.S. dollar](https://money.com/what-does-strong-dollar-mean/) relative to other major currencies. As interest rates rise, stocks fall and geopolitical tensions persist, investors are retreating to the relative safety of the dollar. “For the dollar to turn around, we would likely need some combination of a peak Fed tightening cycle, less stress in the global financial system, some stability in leading indicators for global growth, and a potential return of investor risk appetite,” Merrill’s strategists write, adding that those factors could help stocks “find their footing.” ### There’s more volatility [Volatility](https://money.com/stock-market-volatility-investing-tips/) is never fun for investors, but Merrill’s strategists say the market is likely to get a lot more volatile before stocks start recovering. That tracks with the way [stocks typically perform in October](https://money.com/october-most-volatile-month-stocks/), which tends to be one of the market’s most volatile months. ## When will the stock market recover? Knowing that bear markets aren’t forever is one thing, but waiting for the market to reenter bull territory is another. While it’s not possible to predict exactly when the stock market will recover, history shows us that the [average bear market lasts about 16 months](https://money.com/bear-markets-length-stock-returns/), with bear markets that occur during a recession lasting significantly longer than those that don’t. In the meantime, there are ways investors can [take advantage](https://money.com/investing-moves-bear-market-stocks/) of the downturn. Consider using this time to rebalance your portfolio to be sure you’re appropriately diversified. You can also start dollar-cost averaging to take advantage of lower asset prices and prevent yourself from trying to time the market. ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/signs-new-bull-market/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Investing", "item": "https://money.com/investing/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Investments", "item": "https://money.com/investments/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Is a Bull Market Coming for Stocks? 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