--- title: New Social Security COLA Estimate Ticks Down After Inflation Data description: Estimates for the next cost-of-living adjustment to Social Security moved downward after inflation cooled to 2.4%. But what about tariffs? authors: - name: Pete Grieve role: Lead News Reporter url: https://money.com/author/pete-grieve/ bio: Pete Grieve is a personal finance reporter. In his time at Money, Pete has covered everything from car buying to credit cards to the housing market. education: University of Chicago, BA Political Science at_money_since: 2022 articles: 600 covers: - Retirement - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Shopping - Taxes social: - https://twitter.com/pete_grieve - https://linkedin.com/in/pete-grieve-b5aa02138 - https://www.facebook.com/petegrieve4 published: '2025-04-11T15:43:35.000Z' modified: '2025-04-11T15:43:35.000Z' section: Retirement tags: - News word_count: 452 canonical: https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-april-2025/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Senior retired man is taking groceries out of the supermarket cart.](https://img.money.com/2025/04/News-COLA-Estimate-Ticks-Down-Inflation-Data.jpg?crop=0px%2C138px%2C2880px%2C1620px&quality=85) Estimates for the next cost-of-living adjustment to Social Security moved downward this week as new consumer price index data showed inflation cooling to 2.4%. Inflation fell to the lowest level in four years, with the numbers coming in under what Wall Street had forecasted ahead of Thursday's Bureau of Labor Statistics report. With the annual inflation rate dropping, Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security analyst, now predicts a 2.2% COLA for 2026. That would be lower than the [2025 COLA](https://money.com/social-security-cola-2025/) of 2.5%. Older Americans relying on Social Security benefits often keep a close eye on inflation and government reports. For one thing, people with fixed incomes tend to be especially sensitive to price increases. The rate of inflation also determines the COLA, which is the annual change to Social Security benefits intended to offset inflation. ## Long-Term Care Insurance allows you to know that you and your loved ones are financially protected as you age ### Regular health insurance, disability insurance, and Medicare are not designed to cover long-term care costs. Get Long-Term Care Insurance today - select your state to get a free quote. [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/b569008ea8c5?ap_referrer=%2Fsocial-security-cola-estimate-april-2025%2F&url=%2Flong-term-care-insurance%2Flp%2Fbest-long-term-care-insurance-money) The annual COLA is calculated based on third-quarter inflation data, which means numbers from July, August and September will determine next year's final adjustment. In a note Thursday, Johnson explained that the exact index used to calculate the COLA, known as the CPI-W, reported an inflation rate of 2.2% in March, down from 3.0% in January. Johnson said she is worried about the impact of recent years' inflation on retirement nest eggs. The average Social Security retirement benefit is $1,976, but many older Americans feel their benefits are insufficient with how high prices have climbed for groceries, health care and other expenses. "Higher sticky consumer prices, home repairs \[and\] changes in health are forcing older consumers to spend more from savings at a faster rate, at the same time extreme [stock market volatility](https://money.com/what-to-do-volatile-stock-market/) pummels the value of retirement account holdings," Johnson added. ## How Trump's tariffs could affect the COLA Another new [estimate](https://seniorsleague.org/press-brief-2025-cola-projection-4-10-25/) from the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older Americans, estimates the 2026 COLA will be 2.3%, roughly in line with Johnson's analysis. But if inflation rises due to [tariffs](https://money.com/where-when-tariffs-hike-prices/), a growing concern among economists, COLA forecasting models based on CPI-W data could soon suggest larger increases in Social Security payments. "While this would increase the COLA," the league wrote in a news release, "it would also put seniors under financial pressure as prices rise." Johnson, too, added a word of caution to her report. "This forecast, however, may underestimate the final 2026 COLA because Trump administration tariffs would raise consumer prices," she said. "A trade war with China or higher tariffs with other trading partners would cause higher inflation. That could push COLAs higher, as well." ## Get the care you will need after age 65 ### 70% of people 65+ will require long-term care. A Long-Term Care Insurance policy makes the process easier by helping you pay for the care you need in your golden years. [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/k696436a32ba?ap_referrer=%2Fsocial-security-cola-estimate-april-2025%2F&url=%2Flong-term-care-insurance%2Flp%2Fabm-pub-best-ltc-insurance) ![](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/1402/medium_fWrleDLaHsZEAmRdSdadlEauvRehdv.png) Getting Long-Term Care Insurance allows you to know that you're protected as you age [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/be10e253227a?ap_referrer=%2Fsocial-security-cola-estimate-april-2025%2F) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-april-2025/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Retirement", "item": "https://money.com/retirement/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Social Security", "item": "https://money.com/social-security/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "New Social Security COLA Estimate Ticks Down After Inflation Data" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-april-2025/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-april-2025/", "name": "New Social Security COLA Estimate Ticks Down After Inflation Data", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2025-04-11T15:43:35.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-april-2025/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-april-2025/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2025-04-11T15:43:35.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "New Social Security COLA Estimate Ticks Down After Inflation Data", "articleSection": "Retirement", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2025/04/News-COLA-Estimate-Ticks-Down-Inflation-Data.jpg?crop=0px%2C138px%2C2880px%2C1620px&quality=85", "width": 1012, "height": 569, "caption": "News-COLA-Estimate-Ticks-Down-Inflation-Data" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Pete Grieve", "url": "https://money.com/author/pete-grieve/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/pete-grieve/#author", "description": "Pete Grieve is a personal finance reporter. 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