---
title: Social Security Recipients Shouldn't Count on Another Huge Raise Next Year
description: Social Security benefits increased starkly between 2022 and 2023 as inflation surged. But recipients shouldn't get used to a big COLA.
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published: '2023-03-17T18:56:20.000Z'
modified: '2024-01-10T13:17:02.000Z'
section: Retirement
tags:
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  - Social Security
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![Collage of seniors looking at bills and being concerned](https://img.money.com/2023/03/News-Social-Security-low-Increase.jpg)

At the start of the year, tens of millions of Social Security beneficiaries received an [8.7% boost to their monthly checks](https://money.com/social-security-checks-cola-increase-2023/): the biggest raise in decades as a result of sky-high inflation.

But this fall, when those government benefits are recalculated again — an annual process known as the cost-of-living adjustment (or COLA) — their raise won’t be nearly as high, according to an early projection from the nonprofit [The Senior Citizens League](https://seniorsleague.org/).

Although there's still a long way to go, Social Security beneficiaries may want to prepare for a COLA much smaller than the current 8.7% rate.

-   “I am telling retirees to not get used to this COLA,” Matt Sotir, an advisor with the financial services firm Equitable, [previously told Money](https://money.com/social-security-checks-cola-increase-2023/). “It is extremely rare and likely will not be repeated as inflation should abate over the next few years.”

Johnson notes that these are very early projections. She won’t release her official COLA estimates until May after more 2023 inflation data is released. But it’s likely that future COLA estimates will be lower than 3% if inflation continues to ease in the coming months, as it is expected to, given the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes aimed at curbing price growth.

“I will be happy if there is a modest COLA," Johnson writes, "and then we end the year with inflation finally going negative.”

[In Retirement, Social Security Will Likely Pay Out More Than You Think: Study](https://money.com/social-security-pay-more-than-expected/)

[Why Millionaires Don't Have to Pay Any More Social Security Taxes This Year](https://money.com/millionaires-social-security-taxes-income-cap/)

[Moving to a Cheaper City Can Net You an Extra $100,000 in Retirement](https://money.com/moving-retirement-cheaper-city-save-money/)

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