--- title: History Suggests Stocks Could Keep Rising in the Second Half of 2023 description: The stock market has had a strong start to the year, and history suggests those gains could continue in the second half of 2023. authors: - name: Sarah Hansen role: Senior Writer url: https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/ bio: Sarah Hansen is a senior writer at Money covering all things personal finance. Previously, she covered economic policy and capital markets on the breaking news desk at Forbes. education: Northwestern University, New York University at_money_since: 2021 articles: 347 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes social: - https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarah-m-hansen/ former_staff: true editors: - name: Mallika Mitra role: Contributing Editor url: https://money.com/author/mallika-mitra/ bio: Mallika Mitra is a contributing editor for Money, based in Chicago. She has covered investing and retirement for seven years and her work has appeared in CNBC, Bloomberg, Kiplinger, AARP, Barron’s, Bankrate, The Daily Upside, ETF.com, The Bond Buyer, PLANADVISER, PLANSPONSOR and Investopedia. education: Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY Kalamazoo College at_money_since: 2020 articles: 395 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - CNBC - Bloomberg - Kiplinger - Barron's - Bankrate - WGN-TV - CBS News Radio - This Morning With Gordon Deal - Everyone's Talkin' Money social: - https://twitter.com/mitra_mallika - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mallika-mitra-4577a386/ published: '2023-06-20T19:02:15.000Z' modified: '2023-06-20T19:02:15.000Z' section: Economy and Politics tags: - News - stocks word_count: 437 canonical: https://money.com/stocks-could-rise-second-half-of-year/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Market trader](https://img.money.com/2023/06/Investing-What-Can-Investors-Expect-Second-Half-Year.jpg?crop=0px%2C256px%2C2880px%2C1620px&quality=85) The stock market has had an impressive start to the year. If history is any indication, investors have reason to be optimistic about the last six months of 2023, too. The [S&P 500 index](https://money.com/how-to-invest-in-sp500/) is up about 14.5% so far this year, and a recent analysis by Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, finds that a strong first half of the year in the stock market is highly correlated with gains in the second half. While that could be true this year, stocks still face significant challenges: a potential [recession](https://money.com/recession-chances-changing-economists/), the likelihood of more [rate hikes](https://money.com/federal-reserve-pause-interest-rate-hikes/) from the Federal Reserve, weak corporate earnings, and inverted yield curves in the bond market, which traditionally [signal economic weakness](https://money.com/what-inverted-yield-curve-means-for-investors/). Much of the stock market's rally has also been [driven by major names in the tech industry](https://money.com/can-tech-stocks-keep-driving-the-market-rally/), which has some experts concerned the rally may not last. ## Gold IRAs can provide resilience during economic downturns ### Gold IRAs help you protect your investments by providing the asset diversification and stability you need. Click on your state to get started. [Invest in Gold](https://money.com/pr/u3964e5399dd?ap_referrer=%2Fstocks-could-rise-second-half-of-year%2F) ## What the stock market analysis found Stovall found that since 1945, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 5% in the second half of the year when the index recorded a positive return in the first half. Second half gains were more pronounced — closer to 6% — when the index gained 5% or more during the first half of the year. When the first half gains were greater than 10%, gains in the second half were 8% on average — that’s twice the average second-half return of all years. With this year's S&P 500 [gain of nearly 15%](https://money.com/stocks-are-in-bull-market-will-it-last/), Stovall concludes, "history suggests investors hold onto their hats" since a "stellar" second half of the year may be coming. ## Stock market returns are unpredictable Despite those favorable odds, Stovall cautions that historical performance is never a guarantee when it comes to the stock market. And some experts don’t agree that more gains are on the way. In a research note this week, for instance, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson cautioned that a few of the headwinds facing stocks — including the end of pandemic-era government support, a loss of liquidity stemming from the [debt ceiling deal](https://money.com/debt-ceiling-deal-could-hurt-stock-market/) and falling inflation leading to lower revenue growth for companies — could depress stock prices in the coming months. “We find it hard to get on board with the current excitement,” Wilson wrote. “If second half growth re-accelerates as expected, then the bullish narrative being used to support equity prices will be proven correct. If not, many investors may be in for a rude awakening.” ## In times of market volatility and uncertainty, Gold has performed historically well ### By diversifying your retirement portfolio with a Gold IRA, you can potentially safeguard your savings from market fluctuations and other financial risks, and enjoy greater peace of mind knowing that your funds are well-protected. Click below to start investing. [Invest in Gold](https://money.com/pr/s8440a998477?ap_referrer=%2Fstocks-could-rise-second-half-of-year%2F) ![](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/19305/medium_414558a1-29d4-465e-b5d1-921febc39ed2.png) American Hartford Gold can help you take control of your financial future [Invest in Gold](https://money.com/pr/cdf8db27d320?ap_referrer=%2Fstocks-could-rise-second-half-of-year%2F) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/stocks-could-rise-second-half-of-year/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Economy and Politics", "item": "https://money.com/economy-and-politics/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Stock Market", "item": "https://money.com/stock-market/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "History Suggests Stocks Could Keep Rising in the Second Half of 2023" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/stocks-could-rise-second-half-of-year/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/stocks-could-rise-second-half-of-year/", "name": "History Suggests Stocks Could Keep Rising in the Second Half of 2023", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2023-06-20T19:02:15.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/stocks-could-rise-second-half-of-year/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/stocks-could-rise-second-half-of-year/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2023-06-20T19:02:15.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "History Suggests Stocks Could Keep Rising in the Second Half of 2023", "articleSection": "Economy and Politics", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2023/06/Investing-What-Can-Investors-Expect-Second-Half-Year.jpg?crop=0px%2C256px%2C2880px%2C1620px&quality=85", "width": 1012, "height": 569, "caption": "Investing-What-Can-Investors-Expect-Second-Half-Year" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Sarah Hansen", "url": "https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/sarah-hansen/#author", "description": "Sarah Hansen is a senior writer at Money covering all things personal finance. 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