Gold 2026 Outlook: Here's What Experts Predict
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Gold investors enjoyed strong returns in recent months, with the precious metal soaring by more than 60% in 2025. That performance comfortably outpaced the S&P 500, and many investors view it as a stabilizer amid stock concentration and geopolitics.
Strategists predict varied paths, but there seems to be one common insight about gold. It acts as portfolio insurance for retirees but is not good for speculation.
Current Snapshot + Price Forecasts
Gold started the year a little above $2,500 before soaring to above $4,000 per ounce. Central bank buys and safe-haven flows were some of the catalysts that helped gold outperform most assets.
Most financial institutions are bullish on gold and believe it will exceed $5,000 in 2026. Yardeni Research has a $6,000 price target, and J.P. Morgan believes gold will be valued at $5,055 in 2026. Bank of America, HSBC, and Societe Generale also assigned $5,000 price targets.
Big banks too believe gold will be close to $5,000. For instance, Goldman Sachs and UBS forecast a $4,900 price target for gold. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley are less bullish with $4,450 and $4,400 price targets, respectively.
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Allocation Advice for Retirees
Most experts recommend making gold 5% to 10% of your portfolio. However, retirees may want to get more aggressive and allocate 8% to 10% of their holdings to gold. The precious metal could help minimize risk with a stock-heavy portfolio. Investors who are holding cash and CDs should only allocate 3% to 5% of their holdings to gold, especially if they are risk-averse.
The optimal allocation also depends on your timeframe. Gold typically works best if you don’t touch it for at least five years. However, if you have immediate cash needs, gold shouldn’t make up much of your portfolio. It’s better to avoid gold if it means using your extra money to pay off debt or build your emergency fund.
Investors with longer timelines benefit more from holding gold and using it to hedge against inflation and uncertainty.
Preferred Gold Vehicles
Most people think of buying physical gold, like coins and bars. However, these assets have high fees that can take up 1% to 3% of the annual cost due to storage and insurance. You can save money while investing in gold if you prioritize ETFs like GLD. This fund gives investors exposure to gold without having to worry about storage and insurance. GLD only has a 0.40% expense ratio. Investors can also buy shares in IAU, another gold trust, that only has a 0.25% expense ratio.
Gold IRAs are another option for people who want to accumulate precious metals while enjoying tax advantages. The best way to put gold in an IRA is to get a regular IRA and buy a gold ETF in that retirement account. The problem with gold IRAs that let you buy physical gold is that you don’t get to store the gold, and these IRAs have much higher fees.
Getting Started with American Hartford Gold
If you decide that some of your gold allocation should be in physical metal rather than just ETFs, a specialized provider can make the logistics easier. One of Money’s best Gold IRA companies, American Hartford Gold, focuses on helping investors buy physical gold and silver either inside a self-directed IRA or for direct delivery (Check them out here.)
- Clarify your mix: Decide what share of your overall gold allocation you want in low-cost ETFs versus physical coins and bars, keeping your total exposure in that 5% to 10% range.
- Talk through your accounts: American Hartford Gold representatives can review your existing IRAs and 401(k)s and explain how a partial rollover into a Gold IRA would work, including storage and fees.
- Choose your approach: If you opt for a Gold IRA, the company coordinates with a custodian and an approved depository to hold the metals. If you prefer to own some gold directly, they can help you select coins or bars and arrange insured delivery.
Bottom Line
Gold’s 2026 outlook may be encouraging, but disciplined sizing and sensible vehicles matter more than trying to chase every price move. For retirees who want to make physical gold a modest, long-term part of their plan, American Hartford Gold can help handle the setup and ongoing details so the allocation fits alongside your existing stocks, bonds, and cash.