From Inflation to AI Gift Ideas, Here's How Holiday Shopping Will Be Different This Year
Holiday shopping is on track to be like everything else in 2025: a roller coaster ride.
The National Retail Federation now predicts that retail sales in November and December will surpass $1 trillion, growing by as much as 4.2% from last year despite concerns from shoppers about rising prices.
As Black Friday promotions flood inboxes and Christmas commercials become downright inescapable, Americans are taking steps to adjust their priorities, spend smarter and pay on their own terms. Here are three major trends you can expect to see this holiday shopping season.
Everyone's worried about the economy
"Shoppers are feeling the pinch from multiple angles," retail expert Wendy Bergh, chief marketing officer at Rakuten Rewards, writes in an email. "Inflation is still very real, but we’re also seeing financial pressures from rising tariffs and lingering concerns about personal finances."
Although most Americans still haven't started to feel the full effects of President Donald Trump's tariff policies, many are struggling to make ends meet — and worrying about what happens next. Retailers, meanwhile, are changing up their supply chains and stocking strategies, which could lead to shortages of items like toys and festive decor.
According to Lupine Skelly, Deloitte's retail, wholesale and distribution research leader, auxiliary holiday expenses — think pictures with Santa at the mall and Nutcracker tickets — are on the chopping block.
Presents? Largely safe.
"People are saying, 'I'm willing to cut here. Let's see what I can do to keep the gifts up,'" she adds.
Indeed, the majority of people are planning to spend about the same amount of money on gifts that they did last year, according to a Gallup poll released Tuesday. Trends vary by generation and income level, but the average per-person spend shakes out to an average of $1,007.
"People are still in the 'wait and see' attitude," says Dana Bodine, vice president of marketing at Trustpilot. "What I think is completely changing is the consumer purchasing journey."
And that's a perfect lead-in to…
Forget elves. AI is going to help you shop
When money is tight, shoppers get creative. Gen Z, which is one age group that does plan to significantly cut back on holiday spending, is "looking for deals and figuring out ways to make the holidays happen," Skelly says.
So in addition to comparison-shopping and checking out product recommendations, they're calling in the big guns: artificial intelligence.
PayPal found that 61% of Gen Zers (born between 1997 and 2012) and 57% of millennials (1981-1996) have used AI to help them buy something in the past year, and they're not stopping anytime soon. Adobe predicts that AI traffic to retail sites will jump by 520% this holiday season.
Skelly says we'll see people use AI to personalize gift lists, find ideas, stick to a budget and find top-rated items.
And Bodine says we're on the precipice of agentic commerce, which works like a virtual personal shopper. All you have to do is tell an AI chatbot, "Hey, I'm shopping for my friend Dana. She owns a Subaru. She needs something quick and easy because she has a young son. I'm willing to spend $99 to $150. If you can find XYZ at that price, please buy it for me and send it to my house."
People are seeking new ways to pay (later)
There are some worrisome trends emerging around how folks actually pay for their holiday shopping. A July poll found that 27% of millennials plan to take on credit card debt in order to cover their holiday expenses, and 40% of Gen Zers are ready to use their savings.
It doesn't have to be this way. In the face of financial uncertainty, "consumers are savvier than ever," Bergh says. This means combining discounts, incentives (free shipping), cash back and loyalty points to stretch their dollars.
"This season, stacking deals isn't a hack — it's the new normal," she adds.
Shoppers are also relying on buy now, pay later, or BNPL. PayPal found that half of people surveyed intend to use BNPL for their holiday shopping.
Although popular, the payment method comes with a whole host of pros and cons. On one hand, BNPL can make big-ticket purchases affordable by breaking them into multiple interest-free pieces. On the other, it can tempt you to overspend, rack up hidden fees and accumulate debt.
It's common for BNPL users — especially low-income and young ones — to miss payments and have multiple BNPL loans going at once. To avoid landing in an unfortunate financial cycle, you'll need to strategize.
"The best move you can make right now is to go from a 'buy now, worry later' mindset to a 'plan and earn' strategy," Bergh says.
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