Nearly 60% of independent advisers think a double-dip recession is unlikely over the next six months, and more than 60% expect the S&P to increase in the same period, according to a survey released recently by Charles Schwab.
But don’t go betting the farm on these optimistic findings just yet. A look at the results from January’s survey of advisers shows that they aren’t necessarily the best augurs. In that earlier survey, 49% of advisers expected inflation to increase in the next six months (it hasn’t); 47% expected consumer spending to increase (it hasn’t); and 40% expected unemployment to increase (it hasn’t). Advisers did get some things right, though. In the January survey, 59% expected consumer savings to increase in the next six months (it did); and 46% thought the housing market would continue to soften (it has).
Schwab acknowledges that the survey has limited forecasting value. “We’re thinking [the study] is more like a national view of what’s going on,” says Bernie Clark, executive vice president for Charles Schwab Advisor Services. “It’s not a predictor as much as where we think that the trends are taking us.”
And what looks like the dominant trend these days? The biggest challenge facing advisers and their clients right now, Clark says, is what he calls the “uncertainty factor.” About half of advisers’ clients feel less optimistic about the economy than they did in 2009. Forty percent of advisers say their clients are less optimistic about their investment performance than they were six months ago, and 50% of advisers say their clients feel less confident they’ll be able to retire when they want to. Advisers report that 47% of clients are reducing expenses, and more than half are spending less on discretionary items.
Advisers have their own doubts, too. Seventy-one percent say it will be difficult to achieve their clients’ financial goals. That’s down from the 84% who held that opinion in early 2009, but up from the 58% who expressed these doubts earlier this year.
In any case, people are increasingly turning to independent advisers for help with financial planning. More than 9 in 10 advisers said they received new assets in the past six months.
For the record, the sector of the market that advisers think will perform the strongest over the next six months is information technology, cited by 47% of them. Of course, if you have your doubts about advisers’ predictive powers (see above), maybe you’d also like to know the sector in which they have the least confidence. And that’s consumer discretionary—the pick of only 9% of professionals. Check back in six months to judge their accuracy.
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