--- title: No Fed Rate Cuts in 2025? Experts Say It Could Happen description: 'New economic data has prompted experts to consider a new possibility: No Fed rate cuts in 2025.' authors: - name: Pete Grieve role: Lead News Reporter url: https://money.com/author/pete-grieve/ bio: Pete Grieve is a personal finance reporter. In his time at Money, Pete has covered everything from car buying to credit cards to the housing market. education: University of Chicago, BA Political Science at_money_since: 2022 articles: 602 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes social: - https://twitter.com/pete_grieve - https://linkedin.com/in/pete-grieve-b5aa02138 - https://www.facebook.com/petegrieve4 editors: - name: Martha C. White role: Writer url: https://money.com/author/martha-c-white/ education: BA, English, Princeton University at_money_since: 2015 articles: 354 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology published: '2025-01-16T13:42:46.000Z' section: Economy and Politics tags: - News word_count: 653 canonical: https://money.com/no-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025-possible/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Jerome Powell](https://img.money.com/2025/01/News-Fed-Rate-Cuts-2025.jpg) Where are interest rates headed this year? The answer could be one that was unthinkable as recently as a month ago: Nowhere. Amid mixed economic data and uncertainty around the president-elect's proposed tariffs, some analysts are now tempering expectations of multiple cuts in 2025. In a surprising reversal, Bank of America wrote in a report this week that it now expects the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark federal funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5% for an extended period. Previously, Bank of America forecasted two cuts of 25 basis points (a quarter of a percentage point) each in 2025. The revision came after a couple of recent data releases showed a labor market in better shape — and inflation more stubborn — than economists anticipated. The better-than-expected December [jobs report](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) released Friday found that the economy added more than 250,000 jobs and unemployment fell to 4.1%. ## Regain financial stability with the help of Freedom Debt Relief ### Freedom can start you on the path to resolve your debt, especially if you owe over $20,000. Why wait? Select your state to get started today! [Get Started](https://money.com/pr/l67257dab4e3?ap_referrer=%2Fno-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025-possible%2F) On Wednesday, the consumer price index (CPI) for December was [released](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm), showing that annual inflation ticked up from 2.7% to 2.9%, which Bank of America economists characterized as "modestly above target" in a new research note. Plus, President-elect Donald Trump's suggested tariffs on countries like Mexico and China would make prices on a wide array of goods go up if enacted, [economists say](https://money.com/what-to-buy-before-trump-tariffs/). These conditions point to the Fed taking more of a wait-and-see approach. Officials said as much on Wednesday after the CPI release. John Williams, the New York Fed president and voting member of the central bank's rate-setting committee, said the economy is healthy. Williams added that the two parts of the Fed's mandate — to support the labor market and to limit inflation from going above the 2% target — have returned to balance. "Our job is to ensure the risks remain in balance," he said in [remarks](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250115) at a conference in Connecticut. Inflation is still higher than policymakers want, and Williams said disinflation "will take time, and the process may well be choppy." After the strong jobs data for December, Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at financial services company SWBC, said the Fed might hit the brakes entirely. “We may very well see no rate cuts this year,” he said in a research note. ## Timeline of recent Fed cuts The Fed raised interest rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to fight inflation, bringing rates up to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The Fed held interest rates at that level for over a year, announcing a 50 basis point rate cut in September. The Fed has cut rates twice more since then. Here is the timeline of recent interest rate cuts: - September: 50 basis point cut - November: 25 basis point cut - December: 25 basis point cut At 4.25% to 4.5%, rates are now a full percentage point lower than the recent high, but it's unclear how much more cutting the Fed will do. In any event, interest rates aren't likely to return to the near-zero levels of 2019 anytime soon, if ever. This means Americans will have to get used to rates on [mortgages](https://money.com/current-mortgage-rates/), auto loans, personal loans, student loans and credit cards remaining higher than they were just a few years ago. ## How many interest rate cuts will there be in 2025? In December, Fed officials expected to make two rate cuts in 2025, according to the "[dot plot](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20241218.pdf)," which shows where officials think rates are headed. However, at one point in September, Fed officials were expecting *four* cuts. Since the release of the last dot plot, the odds of multiple cuts in 2025 appear to have decreased further. According to the [CME Group's FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html), the market now expects one rate cut by June, but the probability of an additional rate cut beyond that is closer to 50/50. ## Reduce payments and make debt manageable with a Debt Relief program ![VISIT SITE](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/25289/medium_2e7b27ce-b30d-40a3-beef-0139ecba6b47.png) Our Partner [VISIT SITE](https://money.com/go/1257a16917e7?bidid=4121898162&pmeta=p129-c628-u31158&ptid=671441097&ptoken=cee521b0e73807d8b6eaea301a39cd76) ![VISIT SITE](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/23879/medium_3847e650-29eb-411b-9b8c-05deb0d02cbc.png) Our Partner [VISIT SITE](https://money.com/go/0df3ac6f0a0b?bidid=4121898164&pmeta=p129-c628-u31158&ptid=671441097&ptoken=a7e6ce74000e84a787fbe6e57acaf888) ![VISIT SITE](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/15565/medium_832cc4b7-74f8-4735-8fe1-6917816cbe8d.png) Our Partner [VISIT SITE](https://money.com/go/7a13f356febf?bidid=4121898160&pmeta=p129-c628-u31158&ptid=671441097&ptoken=74cd1cf37cf6e1a8bbe1a5d475d84ef5) ![VISIT SITE](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/22445/medium_ba73f26a-1e1e-4e49-9739-df1298783de6.png) Our Partner [VISIT SITE](https://money.com/go/5d5ea81c52e6?bidid=4121898170&pmeta=p129-c628-u31158&ptid=671441097&ptoken=2c540f33c0a26fdabd8e67cb50c9b785) ![VISIT SITE](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/9246/medium_94931930-28cf-46b5-b09d-683979caec81.png) Our Partner [VISIT SITE](https://money.com/go/e864124d4611?bidid=4121898166&pmeta=p129-c628-u31158&ptid=671441097&ptoken=ca0376c51952dd8942bbecb0f88ca9a0) ![](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/25289/medium_2e7b27ce-b30d-40a3-beef-0139ecba6b47.png) If you owe over $20,000 or more, Freedom Debt Relief can help you get back on your feet! [Get Started](https://money.com/pr/u5c2defb44d4?ap_referrer=%2Fno-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025-possible%2F) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/no-fed-rate-cuts-in-2025-possible/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Economy and Politics", "item": "https://money.com/economy-and-politics/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Federal Reserve", "item": "https://money.com/federal-reserve/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "No Fed Rate Cuts in 2025? 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