How Big Will the COLA Be? Social Security on Track for Above-Average Raise in 2026
Social Security recipients are likely getting an above-average boost to their benefits for 2026.
On Thursday, a hot August inflation report increased the odds of a larger cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, to next year's Social Security payments. While the headline inflation rate was 2.9% in August, the gauge used for Social Security calculations showed annual inflation of 2.8%, up from 2.5% in July.
The COLA is intended to help Social Security payments keep pace with rising costs. Inflation reports for July, August and September determine the adjustment, which is typically announced in October. The COLA is calculated using the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, a measure called the CPI-W.
Based on the new inflation data, Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, is now forecasting a 2.8% Social Security COLA for 2026. That's up up slightly from her call of 2.7% a month ago.
If that prediction shakes out, it would sandwich the 2026 COLA between the 2025 adjustment of 2.5% and the larger bump for 2024 of 3.2%.
In a statement Wednesday, Johnson said it's unlikely the 2026 COLA will be any lower than 2.7%. (The average COLA over the past 20 years is 2.6%.)
"Based on data going back 25 years, there's an 88% chance that inflation will push the COLA to 2.8% with the September data," Johnson said. "There's only a 12% chance it could go as low as 2.6%."
The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older adults, is projecting a 2.7% increase, according to a Wednesday briefing. This projection is identical to the group's estimate from last month.
If these forecasts play out, retired workers would get average monthly benefit increases of about $55. The average monthly benefit would rise from $1,955 to $2,009.70 with a 2.8% COLA, according to Johnson, while the TSCL report said a 2.7% COLA would bump up the average benefit from $2,008 to $2,062.
Nothing is finalized yet. But with Wednesday's inflation report being the second of three that really matter, COLA watchers now have a strong sense of where the calculation will land — and what beneficiaries' 2026 raise might look like.
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