Trump vs. Harris: Who Could Lower (or Raise) Your Taxes?

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have made a point of talking about taxes in the final days leading up to the presidential election. This is no accident: With more than 144 million taxpayers filing individual income tax returns this year, it's a topic a huge swath of voters are likely paying attention to.

Although Congress controls the purse strings, the candidates' policy priorities set the legislative agenda, so it's not a bad idea to go into Tuesday's 2024 general election well informed.

Here's what former president Trump, the Republican nominee, and current vice president Harris, the Democratic nominee, have said about top tax issues.

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Trump: Extend the TCJA

On his website, Trump writes that he plans to enact "large tax cuts for workers." The 2024 GOP platform elaborates a bit on the issue, saying that Republican lawmakers vow to "make permanent the provisions of the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that doubled the standard deduction, expanded the Child Tax Credit, and spurred Economic Growth for all Americans."

Indeed, a big part of Trump's presidential legacy involves the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, which made sweeping changes to the way people and businesses are taxed. The TCJA reduced the average person's taxes by about $1,600, though households earning between $308,000 and $733,000 benefitted the most.

It's become a talking point for Trump because many of the tax law's policies are set to expire at the end of next year. And while most folks love the idea of lower taxes, a TCJA extension would be expensive: According to one analysis, Trump's plan would increase the national debt by $7.5 trillion through 2035.

Harris: Tax high earners more

Like President Joe Biden, Harris has vowed not to raise taxes for anyone making less than $400,000 a year. But she does support making sure that "the wealthiest Americans and the largest corporations pay their fair share," according to her economic opportunity policy book.

She plans to roll back the Trump tax cuts targeted at affluent Americans, put a minimum income tax in place for the ultra-wealthy and increase the net investment income tax. Harris also has proposed raising the tax on long-term capital gains — profits from selling assets you've had for at least a year — to 28% for people who make over $1 million annually. (Sen. Bernie Sanders, D-Vt., told NBC he doesn't think this goes far enough.)

Critics have said her proposals would be a headache for the IRS to institute, though they may equal meaningful progress toward her stated goals: An analysis from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that Harris' tax ideas would increase taxes by 4.1% for the richest 1% of Americans while cutting taxes by an average of 2.7% of the Americans in the middle income quintile.

Trump: No tax on Social Security benefits

Trump posted a video to his Truth Social account in September criticizing the "cruel double taxation" of Social Security, implying that people shouldn't have to pay income tax on Social Security benefits after they've had to deal with payroll taxes their whole (working) lives.

"I’m promising no tax on Social Security benefits," Trump said in the video.

The tax on Social Security benefits dates back to 1984, and it's currently capped at 85%, meaning you only pay taxes on benefits up to that level. Only beneficiaries above certain income thresholds have to pay it.

This stance is likely an important one to millions of older Americans who live on fixed incomes and have had trouble coping with the rising cost of living. But the impact would be relatively limited. Morningstar analysts found that 45% of American workers won't be able to cover all their expenses in retirement; if the policy were to change as Trump suggests, that number would fall to 41%. And that's on top of concerns that Trump's no-tax-on-Social-Security plan would cause the program to run out of money sooner.

Harris: Expand the child tax credit

Harris' policy book proposes restoring the expanded child tax credit, which proved to be a lifeline for many families stressed about making ends meet during the pandemic. She calls for permanently restoring that expansion, making the tax credit — which currently tops out at $2,000 — worth up to $3,600 per child. (Trump's running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, has said he'd "love to see a child tax credit that's $5,000 per child.")

In addition, Harris has suggested giving middle- and low-income families a $6,000 tax cut in the first year of their baby's life.

"That is a vital, vital year of critical development of a child," she said at an August event. "And the cost can really add up, especially for young parents who need to buy diapers and clothes and a car seat and so much else."

Harris' child tax credit proposal would cost about $1.6 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. Another analysis found her overall tax plan, which also includes expanding the earned income tax credit, would increase the debt by $3.95 trillion through 2035.

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Trump: Increase tariffs

"Our Trade deficit in goods has grown to over $1 Trillion Dollars a year," the GOP platform reads. "Republicans will support baseline Tariffs on Foreign-made goods, pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, and respond to unfair Trading practices. As Tariffs on Foreign Producers go up, Taxes on American Workers, Families, and Businesses can come down."

The need for tariffs — or a tax imposed by a government on an imported good — has been a cornerstone of Trump's 2024 platform. The nonpartisan Council on Foreign Relations says tariffs can "provide a modest source of government revenue," and Trump has repeatedly said that other countries will be the ones to pay. He has proposed a tariff of up to 20% on imported goods from most nations and a 60% tariff on items from China.

But the effects of Trump's tariffs may be felt closer to home. The Washington Post reported Thursday that executives from companies like AutoZone and Columbia Sportswear have admitted they plan to raise prices for consumers. And an August analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that, depending on how the policy was applied, Trump's tariffs could cost middle-class American households $2,600 a year.

His other proposals may take the sting out of that bill, though. Trump has also proposed nixing taxes on car loan payments and reinstating the state and local tax, or SALT, deduction.

Harris: Help homebuyers

Harris' policy book outlines her hopes to tackle the housing affordability crisis through a slew of tax credits, including one that supports the "new construction or rehabilitation of over 400,000 owner-occupied homes in lower income communities," one that rewards folks who build starter homes and one that will give first-time homebuyers up to $25,000 in down payment assistance.

The goal is to "provide significant tax relief for homebuilders who build homes sold to working families and meaningfully change the economics of building homes that are within reach for younger families."

But details on the actual execution of these proposals are scarce. Case in point: One expert told CNBC he was concerned about the difficulty of defining starter homes, and another told Realtor.com that increasing demand for houses could push up prices.

Harris and Trump: Stop taxing tips

Both Trump and Harris have said they'd end taxes on tips. While that might sound great — there are 4 million Americans who work in tipped jobs, according to Yale University's Budget Lab — the potential impact is dubious.

Many of the lower-income workers who would be covered by this proposal already don't pay much (or anything) in income taxes because they earn too little.

There could be other consequences, too: Employers could slash employees' base pay, according to an op-ed published in September by the Brookings Institution, and Americans in traditionally non-tipped roles could start asking for them as a way to skirt the rules. Finally, PBS reports that consumers could start to tip less, and broader conversations about issues like raising the minimum wage could fall to the wayside.

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