--- title: Here's Where Home Prices Are Heading This Summer, According to Experts description: The housing market is in a lull, and experts predict home prices will keep falling and be 5% lower this summer than they were a year ago. authors: - name: Pete Grieve role: Lead News Reporter url: https://money.com/author/pete-grieve/ bio: Pete Grieve is a personal finance reporter at Money who frequently covers news stories about housing topics including home buying, mortgage rates and homeowners insurance. education: University of Chicago, BA Political Science at_money_since: 2022 articles: 602 covers: - Housing - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes social: - https://twitter.com/pete_grieve - https://linkedin.com/in/pete-grieve-b5aa02138 - https://www.facebook.com/petegrieve4 editors: - name: Brad Tuttle role: Senior Editor url: https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/ bio: Brad Tuttle is a former senior editor at Money with over 10 years’ experience covering a vast number of personal finance topics, including careers, cars, travel, budgeting, investing, insurance, credit cards, consumer psychology, real estate, banking, and shopping and deals. education: Columbia University School of Journalism, MS at_money_since: 2014 articles: 366 covers: - Housing - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology social: - https://twitter.com/bradrtuttle - https://linkedin.com/in/brad-tuttle-834b225 former_staff: true published: '2023-05-01T17:34:17.000Z' modified: '2023-05-01T17:34:17.000Z' section: Housing tags: - News word_count: 399 canonical: https://money.com/where-home-prices-heading-summer-2023/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Collage of House, calculator, for sale sign](https://img.money.com/2023/05/News-House-price-fall-2023.jpg) The [real estate market](https://money.com/buyers-sellers-housing-market-pessimism/) has lost steam in the first months of 2023, and a new forecast says U.S. home prices could soon sink to 5% below year-ago levels. Home prices, which soared for most of the pandemic, are in the midst of their [biggest decline since 2012](https://money.com/home-prices-biggest-decline-since-2012/). Redfin data shows the median sale price in the U.S. was $400,528 in March, 3.3% lower than the median in March 2022. Vanguard, an asset management firm, said in a new report it now expects home prices to fall further heading into the halfway point of the year. There are many reasons for the slump in prices. Some prospective buyers are waiting to make their home purchase until [mortgage rates](https://money.com/best-mortgage-lenders/) fall, which is reducing demand for homes and allowing for prices to decline. Complicating matters, the [supply of homes for sale is low](https://money.com/why-are-there-no-houses-for-sale/) largely because many owners feel trapped in their current residences because they're [locked in with low mortgage rates](https://money.com/low-mortgage-rates-trap-home-sellers/). These factors are all making the market difficult for would-be homebuyers and sellers alike. “The housing downturn is part of the reason why we view a mild U.S. recession in 2023 as most likely,” the Vanguard report said. However, the company expects the housing market to start rebounding in the back half of the year, and to keep rising into 2024 and 2025. ## Shopping for a new home? Find out how much you can afford today. ### Mortgage Experts at Rocket Mortgage (NMLS #3030) are available to get you started on your home-buying journey with solid advice and priceless information. To find out more, click on your state today. [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/u1bd42af4e5f?ap_referrer=%2Fwhere-home-prices-heading-summer-2023%2F) ## What experts say The economists at Vanguard aren’t the only housing experts who expect home prices to keep falling in 2023. - The National Association of Realtors forecasts that median home prices will decline 1.8% this year, but turn around and rise 2.8% in 2024, according to a [new report](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-decreased-5-2-in-march). “The expensive West region of the U.S. will see lower prices, but the affordable Midwest region will likely squeak out a positive gain,” the report said. - Moody’s forecasts a 5-10% decline in home prices over the next two years, economist Matthew Walsh told [Yahoo Finance](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUL-7LdmqoE). In their view, a relatively slow decline is more likely than a sharp drop in home prices. - Morgan Stanley strategists believe “the housing cycle is bottoming” as the low inventory of homes for sale is preventing prices from falling steeply, according to [Business Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/housing-market-bottom-recession-economy-mortgage-rates-house-prices-2023-4). However, the investment bank doesn't foresee the market getting crazy hot again any time soon. ## Buy your new home with more convenience and less hassle ### A Mortgage Expert at Rocket Mortgage (NMLS #3030) can lend you a hand for a smoother process. Your dream home is possible. Click below to make it happen. [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/u918d32af718?ap_referrer=%2Fwhere-home-prices-heading-summer-2023%2F) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/where-home-prices-heading-summer-2023/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Housing", "item": "https://money.com/housing/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Home Prices", "item": "https://money.com/home-prices/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Here's Where Home Prices Are Heading This Summer, According to Experts" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/where-home-prices-heading-summer-2023/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/where-home-prices-heading-summer-2023/", "name": "Here's Where Home Prices Are Heading This Summer, According to Experts", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2023-05-01T17:34:17.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/where-home-prices-heading-summer-2023/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/where-home-prices-heading-summer-2023/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2023-05-01T17:34:17.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Here's Where Home Prices Are Heading This Summer, According to Experts", "articleSection": "Housing", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2023/05/News-House-price-fall-2023.jpg", "width": 2880, "height": 1920, "caption": "News-House-price-fall-2023" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Pete Grieve", "url": "https://money.com/author/pete-grieve/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/pete-grieve/#author", "description": "Pete Grieve is a personal finance reporter at Money who frequently covers news stories about housing topics including home buying, mortgage rates and homeowners insurance.", "image": "https://img.money.com/2023/02/peter.png?w=350&h=430&crop=1", "email": "peter.grieve@money.com", "jobTitle": "Lead News Reporter", "alumniOf": "University of Chicago, BA Political Science", "sameAs": [ "https://twitter.com/pete_grieve", "https://linkedin.com/in/pete-grieve-b5aa02138", "https://www.facebook.com/petegrieve4" ], "worksFor": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } } ], "publisher": "https://money.com/#organization", "datePublished": "2023-05-01T17:34:17.000Z", "description": "The housing market is in a lull, and experts predict home prices will keep falling and be 5% lower this summer than they were a year ago.", "abstract": "The housing market is in a lull, and experts predict home prices will keep falling and be 5% lower this summer than they were a year ago.", "@id": "https://money.com/where-home-prices-heading-summer-2023/", "inLanguage": "en-US", "dateModified": "2023-05-01T17:34:17.000Z", "editor": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Brad Tuttle", "url": "https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/#author", "description": "Brad Tuttle is a former senior editor at Money with over 10 years’ experience covering a vast number of personal finance topics, including careers, cars, travel, budgeting, investing, insurance, credit cards, consumer psychology, real estate, banking, and shopping and deals.\r\n\r\n", "image": "https://img.money.com/2014/01/Brad-Tuttle.png?w=226&h=247&crop=1", "alumniOf": "Columbia University School of Journalism, MS", "sameAs": [ "https://twitter.com/bradrtuttle", "https://linkedin.com/in/brad-tuttle-834b225" ] } ], "wordCount": 399, "keywords": [ "News" ], "about": [ { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Housing in the United States", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_in_the_United_States" ] }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Real estate economics", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_economics" ] }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Real estate", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate" ] } ] } ] } ```