--- title: A Betting Analyst Shares Insider Tips to Help You Crush Your Oscar Pool description: The 2017 Oscars take place Sunday, February 26, and the favorites to win include Damien Chazelle, Emma Stone, La La Land, and Viola Davis. authors: - name: Brad Tuttle role: Senior Editor url: https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/ bio: Brad Tuttle is a former senior editor at Money with over 10 years’ experience covering a vast number of personal finance topics, including careers, cars, travel, budgeting, investing, insurance, credit cards, consumer psychology, real estate, banking, and shopping and deals. education: Columbia University School of Journalism, MS at_money_since: 2014 articles: 366 covers: - Lifestyle - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology social: - https://twitter.com/bradrtuttle - https://linkedin.com/in/brad-tuttle-834b225 former_staff: true published: '2017-02-23T14:45:45.000Z' modified: '2024-04-17T05:16:49.000Z' section: Lifestyle tags: - gambling - Hollywood - movies - Oscars word_count: 677 canonical: https://money.com/2017-oscars-odds-pick-winners/ type: Article source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Mahershala Ali in Moonlight](https://img.money.com/2017/02/170221_mahershalaali.jpg) *Mahershala Ali is the favorite to win a Best Supporting Actor Oscar for his performance in "Moonlight."* At the 89th annual Academy Awards this Sunday, there are a few sure bets. Host Jimmy Kimmel will make more than one Donald Trump dig. Actors and actresses will thank a slew of agents you've never heard of. And the "In Memoriam" segment will surely forget someone important. Other than that, it's tough to predict who will win the actual awards. Right now, no one outside of [PwC](http://www.pwc.com/us/en/pwc-and-the-oscars.html#/), the firm that handles the balloting process each year, knows who will win come Sunday. So how do you make smart picks in that [Oscars pool](https://money.com/win-oscar-pool-data/) sheet that is probably sitting blank on your desk at this very moment? "Betting on the Oscars is much more subjective than betting on sports," says [Jon Campbell](http://www.oddsshark.com/author/jon-campbell), an analyst from the gambling information site [OddsShark.com](http://www.oddsshark.com/). "You’re betting on the arts so you don’t have many stats to back up your choice." Picking the winners is obviously trickier if you haven't seen half of the films nominated. We're here to help. Based on the current betting odds, insights from film critics and gambling experts, the performances of nominees in awards shows leading up to the Oscars, and predictions made by the likes of [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/oscar-predictions-2017/) and our colleagues over at [*Entertainment Weekly*](http://ew.com/awards/2017/02/17/oscars-2017-predictions-all-categories/), we've broken down the top categories to give you the lowdown on who is most likely going to win, who your upset picks should be and the categories that are anyone's guess. **STRONG FAVORITES** [Watch video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pdqf4P9MB8) Upsets happen, and they can still seem shocking years later in retrospect. Remember when [*Crash* and *Shakespeare in Love*](http://deadline.com/2017/02/heffalumps-and-proles-where-do-oscar-upsets-come-from-1201911783/) beat out *Brokeback Mountain* and *Saving Private Ryan* for Best Picture, in 2006 and 1999? Heck, *Citizen Kane*, widely regarded as the greatest movie of all time, lost the Best Picture competition in 1942 to [*How Green Was My Valley*](http://entertainment.time.com/2013/02/20/oscar-robbery-10-controversial-best-picture-races/slide/1942-citizen-kane-vs-how-green-was-my-valley/). So there is no such thing as a lock. That said, there are some clear favorites to win in 2017. Campbell says the two categories that are all sewn up based on the odds are *La La Land*'s Damien Chazelle for Best Director and *Fences* star Viola Davis for Best Supporting Actress. Below, are more locks. **Best Director: Damien Chazelle, *La La Land*** **Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, *Fences*** **Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, *Moonlight*** **Best Original Score: *La La Land*** **Best Documentary: *O.J.: Made in America*** **TWO-WAY RACES** *La La Land* is undoubtedly the frontrunner to win Best Picture and, with the most nominations overall (14), it's the favorite to snag the most Academy Awards on Sunday. But none of this is a foregone conclusion. “Predicting the Oscars means you’re predicting how the Academy voters will respond to films," says Matt Atchity, editor of the movie-review site [Rotten Tomatoes](https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/film-critics-predict-la-la-land-will-win-best-picture-at-the-oscars/). Picking the winners is especially problematic, then, because instead of evaluating each nominee's merits on your own, you must try to put yourself in the minds of voters. *La La Land*, a "throwback-style musical about chasing creative dreams," as Atchity put it, is being projected by critics as the likely winner because Academy voters have had "a very personal reaction to the film, even though most critics think another awards contender, *Moonlight*, is actually the more deserving film.” So, for these categories, safe bets would be: **Best Picture: *La La Land* or *Moonlight*** **Best Actress: Emma Stone or Natalie Portman** **Best Actor: Casey Affleck or Denzel Washington** **TOTAL TOSSUPS** [Watch video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsVoD0pTge0) "Best Original Screenplay is a nail biter," says Campbell. The betting lines indicate that *Manchester by the Sea* and *La La Land* are the favorites with roughly the same odds of winning, but *Hell or High Water*, *The Lobster*, and *20th Century Women* aren't completely out of the running either. "By Oscars-odds standards, this is really close and it could be a category where we see a surprise winner." It's tough, but stick with one of these: **Best Animated Feature: *Zootopia*, *Kubo and the Two Strings*, or *Moana*** **Best Original Screenplay: *Manchester by the Sea*, *La La Land*, *Hell or High Water*, *The Lobster*, or *20th Century Women*** **Best Adapted Screenplay: *Moonlight*, *Lion*, *Hidden Figures*, *Fences*, or *Arrival*** ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/2017-oscars-odds-pick-winners/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Lifestyle", "item": "https://money.com/lifestyle/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Movies", "item": "https://money.com/movies/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "A Betting Analyst Shares Insider Tips to Help You Crush Your Oscar Pool" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/2017-oscars-odds-pick-winners/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/2017-oscars-odds-pick-winners/", "name": "A Betting Analyst Shares Insider Tips to Help You Crush Your Oscar Pool", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2017-02-23T14:45:45.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/2017-oscars-odds-pick-winners/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/2017-oscars-odds-pick-winners/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2024-04-17T05:16:49.000Z" }, { "@type": "Article", "headline": "A Betting Analyst Shares Insider Tips to Help You Crush Your Oscar Pool", "articleSection": "Lifestyle", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2017/02/170221_mahershalaali.jpg", "width": 2100, "height": 1400, "caption": "170221_moonlight" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Brad Tuttle", "url": "https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/#author", "description": "Brad Tuttle is a former senior editor at Money with over 10 years’ experience covering a vast number of personal finance topics, including careers, cars, travel, budgeting, investing, insurance, credit cards, consumer psychology, real estate, banking, and shopping and deals.\r\n\r\n", "image": "https://img.money.com/2014/01/Brad-Tuttle.png?w=226&h=247&crop=1", "alumniOf": "Columbia University School of Journalism, MS", "sameAs": [ "https://twitter.com/bradrtuttle", "https://linkedin.com/in/brad-tuttle-834b225" ] } ], "publisher": "https://money.com/#organization", "datePublished": "2017-02-23T14:45:45.000Z", "description": "The 2017 Oscars take place Sunday, February 26, and the favorites to win include Damien Chazelle, Emma Stone, La La Land, and Viola Davis.", "abstract": "The 2017 Oscars take place Sunday, February 26, and the favorites to win include Damien Chazelle, Emma Stone, La La Land, and Viola Davis.", "@id": "https://money.com/2017-oscars-odds-pick-winners/", "inLanguage": "en-US", "dateModified": "2024-04-17T05:16:49.000Z", "wordCount": 677, "keywords": [ "gambling", "Hollywood", "movies", "Oscars" ], "about": [ { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Lifestyle", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lifestyle" ] }, { "@type": "Thing", "name": "Film", "sameAs": [ "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Film" ] } ] } ] } ```