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'Amex Recession' Videos Have Taken Over TikTok. We Fact-Checked the Viral Claim

Money; illustration AI-generated with Gemini

Social media platforms have been flooded with viral content claiming American Express is cutting credit card spending limits because the company is concerned the economy is entering a recession.

If you've scrolled TikTok, X or Instagram in the past week, you may have seen one of the videos about the so-called "Amex recession."

Money embarked on a fact check to get to the bottom of these claims, starting by tracing the trend's origins.

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How the 'Amex recession' trend started

Before the flurry of videos began, American Express hadn't made any recent announcement about credit limits or revised its macroeconomic outlook, nor were there any related media reports that may have sparked the trend.

The first mentions of an Amex recession on X, formerly Twitter, appeared on Aug. 15. But the trend started at least a day earlier.

Kevin Kunze, 29, an entrepreneur and influencer who goes by the handle EcomSideHustle, posted an Aug. 14 TikTok video declaring that he planned to cancel all his American Express cards after his credit limits were slashed. Kunze tells Money he was the first to post, and his original video with 2.2 million views and 120,000 likes remains the most viewed.

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Kunze has nine American Express business credit cards for his various ventures, which include Section 8 housing "BRRRRs" — he has nearly 60 active renovations right now — and an Amazon business selling private-label products, he says. He also sells online courses and coaching to social media followers who are interested in growing their own Amazon side hustles.

"I have been using [American Express] since I think 2018 for pretty much 100% of my spend," he said in the video. "I have spent probably $6 [million] to $15 million per year on those cards… and have been paying on autopay the entire statement balance every single month for the history of my account."

With little warning, the bank dramatically reduced his limits last week, creating a cash flow crisis for his businesses, he says. Previously, some of Kunze's cards had no preset spending limit, he says.

"I used to be able to spend anything that I wanted on any card, and now all of a sudden they drop me to a quarter million dollars spend per month on some of the cards."

The biggest hit: A preset spending limit on an American Express Business Gold Card that he uses for his construction business was set at $100,000, he says. He had previously been spending as much as $350,000 a month on that card and had a balance around $180,000 when the change occurred. Because of the new limits, he was forced to make payments of more than $250,000 nearly a month earlier than expected to be able to continue spending, he says.

In a follow up video, Kunze said he actually corresponded with American Express Chairman and CEO Steve Squeri about the situation and received a response to an email in about 12 minutes. In the response, shared with Money, Squeri wrote, "I will have my head of credit review this to determine why this action was taken and to have our small business team get involved."

Personal information was redacted by Kunze. Money redacted an additional email address and retouched the image for readability.

"He was just appeasing me, but nonetheless, I appreciated him hearing me out," Kunze said in his video.

It wasn't until Saturday evening, in his fifth video on the matter, that Kunze first mentioned the idea of a "recession." By that point, users commenting on his TikTok were calling what happened to him a "recession indicator," and the theory that American Express is tightening limits in response to economic concerns was appearing on other platforms.

"American Express is reducing credit limits for pretty much anybody who spends multiple seven figures per year," Kunze said in the video with "Amex - Recession" text overlaid on the screen. "From what I could find online, they do this fairly often. However, based on the responses from my video yesterday, seemingly they're doing a lot more of that in the past couple of weeks, which maybe is possibly a recession indicator. I honestly don't know."

'So maybe we're cooked'

While Kunze's response was measured, admitting he didn't know if this is a recession indicator, the videos that followed were not.

"This is 110% a recession indicator," TikTok user @kiarajaxn said in her post, with overlaid text stating that "Amex is randomly cutting off millionaires 😳."

Then the comparisons to past economic downturns began.

"The only other time this happened is right before COVID and the 2008 recession. So maybe we're cooked," influencer @CamCasey said in a viral post to his 1 million Instagram followers, alleging that he, too, was limited despite never missing a payment.

He showed a screenshot of a $289,000 balance, which he said isn't unusual for his account. The image appears to show he was about $36,000 over his limit despite normally spending "over $300,000 almost every single month on this card." Casey has since returned to posting his standard content, flexing cars and watches, and could not be reached for comment.

On Instagram, @hxxntrr said American Express cut his Platinum card limit from about $100,000 a month to about $50,000.

"Amex just cut everybody's rates," he said, referring to credit limits. "Amex is very, very good at looking at data, and they understand where the economy is going and how much debt that people are in. Now, their books are probably getting worse and worse, and that's why they are… cutting down on how much they are letting their people spend."

This is just a sampling of the videos pushing the unfounded claim that Amex is bracing for a recession — and it's difficult to tell who's actually a customer facing issues and who's just chasing views.

The videos often include a call to action, such as steering folks to Chase business credit cards, suggesting an AI-powered credit repair service or urging users to open a savings account through a link in the creator's bio.

What American Express is saying

The bank has rejected the claim that it's broadly cutting credit limits because of recession concerns.

An American Express spokesperson said in a statement to Money Thursday that the company "regularly reviews Card Member accounts and may adjust credit limits based on a variety of factors as part of our normal course of business."

While reviewing his account last week, the American Express support team asked Kunze to either upload his three most recent business bank statements or digitally link the business bank account. That's ultimately how he restored most of his limits, he says.

Requests for this verification are not abnormal, either, American Express said, though it could not comment on Kunze's individual situation.

The bank added that card members are notified when limits are adjusted. Customers can call American Express support using the number on the back of their card to request reviews of credit limit decisions.

Speaking with Money on Thursday, Kunze said that even he finds the 'Amex recession' claims unlikely at this point. Looking at the company's financial disclosures, he saw that credit card defaults are low, making the recession theory feel less plausible.

"It only really makes sense to tighten spending if people aren't paying," he says. "But as of right now, their numbers genuinely do not show that."

On a July 24 earnings call, Squeri said that "both delinquency and write-off rates remain below 2019 levels, and delinquency rates have been between 1.2% and 1.3% for over three years."

He credited the relatively low rates to the company's strategies to "attract customers with high credit quality."

Why credit card companies cut limits

To the extent that social media claims about individual American Express credit limit changes are true, they aren't signs that "the sky is falling down," says Brian Riley, a director of credit advisory services and a co-head of payments at Javelin Strategy & Research.

The key concept to understand is "credit hygiene," or a card issuer's practice of routinely reviewing customers' spending and credit limits to mitigate risk, he says. Not every bank is as focused on this as American Express, Riley says.

For example, he has a $90,000 limit across three Barclays cards, which he and his wife barely touch. He's hardly a spending customer for the bank, but if he wanted to buy a Corvette and disappear, he could.

"That's really not good credit hygiene," he says. "What you see American Express do and top issuers like Citi, Chase and so forth, they routinely look at your purchase activity and line utilization."

The latest Federal Reserve Stress Test Results, required by the Dodd-Frank Act, simulate how large banks would fare in a range of economic scenarios, including severely stressed conditions, Riley adds.

"If you look at the write-off rates under these severely stressed economic conditions, Amex is heads above everybody else for this," he says. "It really shows that they routinely look at [credit hygiene]" and "they're being very prudent in how they manage their portfolio."