--- title: Social Security Recipients Are on Track for a 2.5% Raise Next Year description: The latest Social Security COLA forecast for comes amid signs that inflation, while moderating from the highs of 2022, remains persistent. authors: - name: Katherine Peach role: Associate Editor url: https://money.com/author/katherine-peach/ bio: Katherine Peach is an associate editor with a focus on news and email at Money. She didn’t always intend to write about money. She’s a classically trained pianist who dreamed of becoming an archaeologist. However, in 2007 Katherine began working in financial publishing as an editor for Agora Inc. (Apparently, unearthing ideas about improving your personal finances isn’t such a bad career alternative!) Katherine’s writing and editing work has been featured in Investing Daily, Clever, Investor Junkie, The Palm Beach Letter, Truth & Plenty, Independence Monthly, NICHE, AmericanStyle, AntiqueWeek, Millennial Money, Money Done Right, TheStreet, Sure Dividend and many others. Katherine holds a Bachelor of Arts in Ancient Studies with concentrations in Archaeology and Ancient Languages and a minor in Literature from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. She is a member of Phi Beta Kappa. education: University of Maryland, Baltimore County at_money_since: 2025 articles: 14 covers: - Retirement - Banking - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Economy and Politics - Education - Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Shopping - Taxes editors: - name: Julia Glum role: Managing Editor url: https://money.com/author/julia-glum/ bio: Julia Glum joined Money in 2018 and specializes in covering financial trends that affect everyday Americans' wallets. She also writes Dollar Scholar, a weekly newsletter that teaches young adults how to navigate the messy world of money. education: University of Florida at_money_since: 2018 articles: 453 covers: - Retirement - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - Newsweek - International Business Times - CBS News - Good Morning America - WUSA9 - Pix 11 - The New York Times - Mashable - The Washington Post - CNBC - Politico social: - https://x.com/superjulia - https://www.linkedin.com/in/julia-glum published: '2025-06-12T16:55:16.000Z' modified: '2025-06-12T16:55:16.000Z' section: Retirement tags: - News word_count: 569 canonical: https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-increase-2026/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Photo collage of a Social Security card being pushed upward by an arrow](https://img.money.com/2025/06/News-Cola-Increase-For-Inflation1.png) The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment — commonly referred to as the [COLA](https://money.com/smaller-social-security-cola-estimate-2026/) — for 2026 is now projected to be 2.5%, according to updated forecasts from The Senior Citizens League, or TSCL, and independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson. The adjustment comes amid signs that inflation, while moderating from the highs of 2022, remains persistent enough to impact older adults' purchasing power — particularly as [new tariffs](https://money.com/tariffs-impact-higher-prices/) begin to influence consumer prices. The updated COLA forecast is based on the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed that the consumer price index for all urban consumers, or CPI-U, increased 0.1% in May. Year over year, prices have risen 2.4%, driven primarily by increases in shelter and food costs. Meanwhile, the CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers, or CPI-W — the index used to calculate COLA — increased by 2.2% compared to a year ago. ## Long-Term Care Insurance allows you to know that you and your loved ones are financially protected as you age ### Regular health insurance, disability insurance, and Medicare are not designed to cover long-term care costs. Get Long-Term Care Insurance today - select your state to get a free quote. [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/b569008ea8c5?ap_referrer=%2Fsocial-security-cola-estimate-increase-2026%2F&url=%2Flong-term-care-insurance%2Flp%2Fbest-long-term-care-insurance-money) Johnson, a retired policy analyst specializing in Social Security and Medicare, emphasized that the 2.5% estimate for next year's COLA is a preliminary figure that could change. “This estimate may rise with the four more months of data still to come in before the 2026 COLA will be announced in October,” she said in a note. She added that tariffs enacted by the Trump administration are beginning to exert upward pressure on prices, although the full effects remain uncertain. “There are signs that the pullback in higher prices appears to be reversing,” Johnson wrote, pointing to stubbornly high costs in categories that disproportionately affect retirees, such as housing, food — particularly meat — and automotive repairs. ## Inflation-tracking issues could distort 2026 COLA projections Meanwhile, TSCL’s revised 2.5% estimate marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase in its COLA projection. However, TSCL also warned that flaws in the way inflation data is currently collected may undermine the accuracy of future COLA estimates. According to a recent [TSCL news release](https://seniorsleague.org/2026-cola-prediction-update-may-2025/), the BLS is struggling with staffing shortages due to a federal hiring freeze, which has forced the agency to scale back its data collection efforts. Shannon Benton, TSCL’s executive director, raised concerns about how this could affect Social Security recipients. “While streamlining the federal government is a good thing, that shouldn’t involve cutting back on our ability to measure how our economy is changing,” she said. “Inaccurate or unreliable data in the CPI dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors receive a COLA that’s lower than actual inflation, which can cost seniors thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement.” TSCL’s 2025 Senior Survey, which is due out this week, found that 80% of seniors believed inflation in 2024 was over 3% — significantly higher than the actual COLA of 2.5% for that year. In reality, the CPI from December 2023 to December 2024 showed an increase of 2.9%. This perceived mismatch is fueling distrust among retirees who already feel squeezed by rising costs and stagnant benefit growth. “Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward,” Benton said. “TSCL’s research shows that there’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day. If the government tells us that prices are rising faster, it’s likely that seniors are already feeling the crunch.” ## Get the care you will need after age 65 ### 70% of people 65+ will require long-term care. A Long-Term Care Insurance policy makes the process easier by helping you pay for the care you need in your golden years. [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/k696436a32ba?ap_referrer=%2Fsocial-security-cola-estimate-increase-2026%2F&url=%2Flong-term-care-insurance%2Flp%2Fabm-pub-best-ltc-insurance) ![](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/1402/medium_fWrleDLaHsZEAmRdSdadlEauvRehdv.png) Getting Long-Term Care Insurance allows you to know that you're protected as you age [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/be10e253227a?ap_referrer=%2Fsocial-security-cola-estimate-increase-2026%2F) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-increase-2026/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Retirement", "item": "https://money.com/retirement/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Social Security", "item": "https://money.com/social-security/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Social Security Recipients Are on Track for a 2.5% Raise Next Year" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-increase-2026/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-increase-2026/", "name": "Social Security Recipients Are on Track for a 2.5% Raise Next Year", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2025-06-12T16:55:16.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-increase-2026/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-increase-2026/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2025-06-12T16:55:16.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Social Security Recipients Are on Track for a 2.5% Raise Next Year", "articleSection": "Retirement", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2025/06/News-Cola-Increase-For-Inflation1.png", "width": 949, "height": 636, "caption": "News-Cola-Increase-For-Inflation" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Katherine Peach", "url": "https://money.com/author/katherine-peach/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/katherine-peach/#author", "description": "Katherine Peach is an associate editor with a focus on news and email at Money. She didn’t always intend to write about money. She’s a classically trained pianist who dreamed of becoming an archaeologist. However, in 2007 Katherine began working in financial publishing as an editor for Agora Inc. (Apparently, unearthing ideas about improving your personal finances isn’t such a bad career alternative!)\r\n\r\nKatherine’s writing and editing work has been featured in Investing Daily, Clever, Investor Junkie, The Palm Beach Letter, Truth & Plenty, Independence Monthly, NICHE, AmericanStyle, AntiqueWeek, Millennial Money, Money Done Right, TheStreet, Sure Dividend and many others.\r\n\r\nKatherine holds a Bachelor of Arts in Ancient Studies with concentrations in Archaeology and Ancient Languages and a minor in Literature from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. 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