--- title: The Next Social Security COLA Is Now Estimated Below 3% Due to Cooling Inflation description: Estimates for the Social Security COLA increase in 2024 are now below 3% due to lower inflation, according to the Senior Citizens League. authors: - name: Mary Ellen Cagnassola role: Reporter url: https://money.com/author/mary-ellen-cagnassola/ bio: Mary Ellen (M.E.) Cagnassola is a former Money reporter specializing in Social Security and retirement coverage, with a focus on making complex policy accessible to readers. education: Rutgers University, BA Journalism at_money_since: 2021 articles: 205 covers: - Retirement - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Economy and Politics - Education - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Shopping - Taxes former_staff: true editors: - name: Brad Tuttle role: Senior Editor url: https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/ bio: Brad Tuttle is a former senior editor at Money with over 10 years’ experience covering a vast number of personal finance topics, including careers, cars, travel, budgeting, investing, insurance, credit cards, consumer psychology, real estate, banking, and shopping and deals. education: Columbia University School of Journalism, MS at_money_since: 2014 articles: 366 covers: - Retirement - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Economy and Politics - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Shopping - Taxes - Technology social: - https://twitter.com/bradrtuttle - https://linkedin.com/in/brad-tuttle-834b225 former_staff: true published: '2023-06-20T19:04:39.000Z' modified: '2023-06-20T19:04:39.000Z' section: Retirement tags: - News - Retirement word_count: 594 canonical: https://money.com/social-security-cola-forecast-2024-inflation/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Illustration of a magnifying glass trying to look at an ever shrinking social security card](https://img.money.com/2023/06/News-Social-Security-raise-keeps-shrinking.jpg?crop=0px%2C79px%2C2880px%2C1620px&quality=85) [Inflation](https://money.com/inflation-financial-hardship-gallup-poll/) hit its lowest levels in roughly two years last month — but [Social Security recipients](https://money.com/social-security-cola-next-year-2024/) may have mixed feelings about how that news could affect their benefits. As inflation continues to decline, so are expectations for next year’s Social Security cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA). The [latest estimate](https://seniorsleague.org/cola-for-2024-could-be-2-7-for-social-security/) from advocacy group Senior Citizens League predicts that Social Security recipients will get a 2.7% raise in 2024, the lowest increase in three years. ## Long-Term Care Insurance allows you to know that you and your loved ones are financially protected as you age ### Regular health insurance, disability insurance, and Medicare are not designed to cover long-term care costs. Get Long-Term Care Insurance today - select your state to get a free quote. [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/b569008ea8c5?ap_referrer=%2Fsocial-security-cola-forecast-2024-inflation%2F&url=%2Flong-term-care-insurance%2Flp%2Fbest-long-term-care-insurance-money) ## What’s the Social Security COLA? Every year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) increases benefits for the almost 70 million recipients of Social Security and [Supplemental Security Income](https://money.com/social-security-ssi-june-july-payments/) (SSI) as a way to counteract rising costs. The SSA determines the COLA based on a subset of the consumer price index that measures the cost of goods and services for certain consumers. Basically, as the cost of living increases for Americans, Social Security payment amounts rise to help people make ends meet. At the start of this year, the COLA received an 8.7% increase — the [biggest boost since 1981](https://money.com/social-security-checks-cola-increase-2023/) — in response to surging inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. The [SSA said](https://blog.ssa.gov/social-security-benefits-increase-in-2023/) at the end of last year that the average increase was $140 a month, bringing the average total monthly benefit in 2023 to about $1,700. But in a previous Senior Citizens League survey, 52% of respondents reported that even with the historic COLA increase, their [Social Security benefits weren't enough](https://money.com/social-security-cola-increase-not-enough/) to cover higher household expenses, which the advocacy group says rose by more than $185 a month from 2022 to 2023. ## What the data says - It’s unlikely that Social Security and SSI recipients will receive a COLA in 2024 anywhere close to this year’s. The Senior Citizens League now predicts it will be about 2.7%, which is still slightly higher than the typical COLA over the last two decades, according to Mary Johnson, Senior Citizens League's policy and Medicare analyst. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that overall inflation was [up 4% year-over-year](https://money.com/federal-reserve-pause-interest-rate-hikes/) in May. - The advocacy's groups COLA expectations have been steadily declining along with inflation: its [last prediction](https://money.com/social-security-cola-estimate-2024-inflation/) in May put the 2024 COLA at 3.1%. - Cooling inflation hasn’t necessarily translated to lower prices at the store. A Senior Citizens League survey of 2,275 older Americans found that the majority (62%) of respondents cited food as their fastest-growing cost. Almost a quarter (22%) said the cost of housing was their biggest concern. ## Why it’s important The Senior Citizens League says that theoretically, this year’s COLA should increase the average retiree's buying power by about $52 a month. Financial services firm [Morningstar predicts](https://www.morningstar.com/views/blog/economy/inflation-recession-forecast) inflation will drop below the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2% by 2024. While it’s true that [prices are coming down](https://money.com/inflation-rate-falls-whats-cheaper/) on select goods and services, some expenses, like dental care and [auto insurance](https://money.com/best-auto-insurance/), are still getting more expensive. Despite the fact that Social Security COLAs have increased, the Senior Citizens League estimates that the average benefit fell behind by $1,054 thanks to severe inflation over the last two years. As a result of household costs rising above the COLA, 53% of [retirees](https://money.com/retirement-do-over-common-regrets/) surveyed said they doubt they will be able to recover financially. "It puts people living on fixed income, especially those with little savings or other resources, at risk of having problems paying their rent or electric bills, going hungry, or failing to fill expensive prescriptions," Johnson says. ## Get the care you will need after age 65 ### 70% of people 65+ will require long-term care. A Long-Term Care Insurance policy makes the process easier by helping you pay for the care you need in your golden years. [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/u89d59a0d2a8?ap_referrer=%2Fsocial-security-cola-forecast-2024-inflation%2F&url=%2Flong-term-care-insurance%2Flp%2Fabm-pub-best-ltc-insurance) ![](https://s3.consumersadvocate.org/prd/image/image/1402/medium_fWrleDLaHsZEAmRdSdadlEauvRehdv.png) Getting Long-Term Care Insurance allows you to know that you're protected as you age [View Rates](https://money.com/pr/be10e253227a?ap_referrer=%2Fsocial-security-cola-forecast-2024-inflation%2F) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-forecast-2024-inflation/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Retirement", "item": "https://money.com/retirement/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Social Security", "item": "https://money.com/social-security/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "The Next Social Security COLA Is Now Estimated Below 3% Due to Cooling Inflation" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-forecast-2024-inflation/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-forecast-2024-inflation/", "name": "The Next Social Security COLA Is Now Estimated Below 3% Due to Cooling Inflation", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2023-06-20T19:04:39.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-forecast-2024-inflation/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/social-security-cola-forecast-2024-inflation/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2023-06-20T19:04:39.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "The Next Social Security COLA Is Now Estimated Below 3% Due to Cooling Inflation", "articleSection": "Retirement", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2023/06/News-Social-Security-raise-keeps-shrinking.jpg?crop=0px%2C79px%2C2880px%2C1620px&quality=85", "width": 1012, "height": 569, "caption": "News-Social-Security-raise-keeps-shrinking" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Mary Ellen Cagnassola", "url": "https://money.com/author/mary-ellen-cagnassola/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/mary-ellen-cagnassola/#author", "description": "Mary Ellen (M.E.) 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