Will the Price of Gold Keep Hitting Record Highs?
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Gold hit an all-time high in October 2024, and many analysts believe that the precious metal can reach $3,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2025. Gold has taken a dip since reaching its all-time high, but it’s widely expected that the yellow metal will set new records next year.
If you are wondering why many analysts feel confident that gold will continue to march higher, understanding the factors that influence gold prices offers clues.
Lower interest rates signal higher gold prices
Several factors determine gold price fluctuations, but few of them carry as much significance as interest rates. These rates dictate the cost of borrowing money and play a major role in inflation, and its direct impact on gold prices.
Higher interest rates can decrease inflation and can even result in deflation if those high rates remain unchecked. The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2022 kept the price of gold flat for the year while tech stocks endured significant losses. However, the Fed has since begun reversing course and has lowered interest rates twice so far in 2024 in response to subsiding inflation, with more cuts expected at its December meeting.
It’s widely expected that the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce rates going into 2025, although analysts have different opinions about how significant future rate cuts will be. Each rate cut makes it easier to borrow money and can increase inflation in the process. Higher inflation leads to higher gold prices.
Gold benefits from inflation because fiat currencies — the currency you need to buy gold — lose purchasing power when inflation rises. It’s one reason why groceries and other goods continue to get more expensive. It’s not that groceries offer more value now than they did 20 years ago, but it’s a reflection of how much value fiat currencies have lost relative to essential products and services.
Geopolitical tensions can also prop gold prices higher
Gold traditionally performs well during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. It’s harder to gauge which fiat currencies will be reliable and how much money printing will be necessary during these times. Meanwhile, gold preserves its intrinsic value during these times and becomes more valuable relative to fiat currencies.
Ongoing global conflicts in Europe and the Middle East can drive gold prices higher. Investors look to minimize their risk during uncertain times, and gold caters to this cohort. Investors can look back to the 1970s to see how gold significantly outperformed the stock market during geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
The stock market generated flat returns from 1970 to 1980, although there was a lot of volatility during those years. Meanwhile, gold prices soared, going from $35 per troy ounce in 1971 to $850 per troy ounce in $850. The astonishing 2,329% return crushed the stock market and rewarded investors who chose to mitigate their risk during economic uncertainty.
While gold investors shouldn’t expect those types of returns from now until 2030, this historical example demonstrates gold’s ability to comfortably outpace other assets during uncertainty.
Tariffs can also deliver more gains for gold investors
Presidents have a significant impact on asset prices due to their policies and how they navigate challenges. President-elect Trump, for example, is focusing on tariffs, which can increase inflation, and alongside it, the price of gold.
Trump also believes that he can replace income taxes with tariffs, a development that could increase consumer spending. Elevating the cost of goods and services while eliminating income taxes can present two tailwinds for precious metals like gold.
Market enthusiasm can increase the demand for gold
Many analysts believe gold will march higher in 2025 due to macroeconomic factors like lower interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. However, animal spirits, a term used to describe human emotion driving investment decisions, can also play a role.
As gold rallies, more investors will jump in to capitalize on the momentum alongside heightened bullish sentiment. It will also give current gold investors a positive feedback loop and can lead to them accumulating more gold.
The reverse scenario is also true, as any decline in an asset can cause more investors to rush for the exits. However, gold looks like it is set up for a strong rally heading into 2025, and animal spirits act as an amplifier of market activity.
Higher consumer spending should increase gold prices
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, average consumer spending increased by 5.9% from 2022 to 2023. Higher consumer spending is good news for gold since the precious metal is integral for many industries, with diverse commercial applications.
Gold isn’t just for jewelry and rings. It’s also in your smartphone, computer, automobile and other everyday items. Many industries — like dentistry and aviation — also use gold to perform their services or produce their products. Higher consumer spending typically increases the demand for gold, and as more people purchase it, gold’s supply — which is finite — decreases. Higher demand and lower supply present two additional tailwinds for gold prices.
Investors should also be mindful of how difficult it is to find gold. Research from the World Gold Council indicates that less than 0.1% of prospected sites result in productive mines. It’s also believed that most of the world’s gold is deep within the Earth’s core, making it difficult to replenish.
These factors help explain why investors are feeling optimistic about gold. It’s no wonder the precious metal has been a core component of civilizations for thousands of years, and why analysts believe the precious metal’s current bull market will carry well into 2025.
