--- title: Over Half of Americans Think the U.S. Is in a Recession (It's Not) description: A new poll shows many Americans have incorrect beliefs about the economy, inflation, the stock market and whether we are in a recession. authors: - name: Julia Glum role: Managing Editor url: https://money.com/author/julia-glum/ bio: Julia Glum joined Money in 2018 and specializes in covering financial trends that affect everyday Americans' wallets. She also writes Dollar Scholar, a weekly newsletter that teaches young adults how to navigate the messy world of money. education: University of Florida at_money_since: 2018 articles: 453 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Debt - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology also_seen_in: - Newsweek - International Business Times - CBS News - Good Morning America - WUSA9 - Pix 11 - The New York Times - Mashable - The Washington Post - CNBC - Politico social: - https://x.com/superjulia - https://www.linkedin.com/in/julia-glum editors: - name: Brad Tuttle role: Senior Editor url: https://money.com/author/brad-tuttle/ bio: Brad Tuttle is a former senior editor at Money with over 10 years’ experience covering a vast number of personal finance topics, including careers, cars, travel, budgeting, investing, insurance, credit cards, consumer psychology, real estate, banking, and shopping and deals. education: Columbia University School of Journalism, MS at_money_since: 2014 articles: 366 covers: - Economy and Politics - Banking - Business - Career Advice - Credit - Credit Cards - Education - Health and Wellness - Housing - Identity Theft - Insurance - Investing - Lifestyle - Loans - Mortgages - Personal Finance - Pets - Professional Services - Retirement - Shopping - Taxes - Technology social: - https://twitter.com/bradrtuttle - https://linkedin.com/in/brad-tuttle-834b225 former_staff: true published: '2024-05-22T20:12:38.000Z' modified: '2024-05-22T20:12:38.000Z' section: Economy and Politics tags: - News word_count: 584 canonical: https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession-survey/ type: NewsArticle source: structured-blocks --- > **Disclosure:** We research all brands listed and may earn a fee from our partners. Research and financial considerations may influence how brands are displayed. Not all brands are included. [Learn more](https://money.com/page/disclaimer/). ![Photo Collage of a pensive man with multiple dollar shaped question marks around him](https://img.money.com/2024/05/News-Americans-Think-Recession.jpg) Good news! It appears our famously divided nation may be finally agreeing on something: In a new poll, a majority of Americans say they think the United States is currently in a recession. The only problem? It's, um, not. The survey results, published Wednesday by [*The Guardian*](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden), indicate that folks believe the U.S. economy is doing worse than it is. Not only do 56% of respondents say the country is experiencing a recession, but also 55% say the economy is shrinking. All of these beliefs are factually incorrect. ## If you're carrying over $20,000 in debt, Debt Relief could be a fast track to financial freedom ### Select your state to begin applying for Accredited Debt Relief's program. [Visit Site](https://money.com/pr/p63c2d2aa2f3?ap_referrer=%2Famericans-think-us-in-recession-survey%2F) ## Are we in a recession? Many experts broadly define a recession as two consecutive quarters of real gross domestic product, or GDP, decline. In the fourth quarter of 2023, GDP increased 3.4%. In the first quarter of 2024, it rose 1.6%. (The latter is an advance estimate but still reflects growth, not contraction.) But there's actually a specific committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, that's tasked with formally declaring when there is — and isn't — a recession. The NBER subscribes to the idea that "a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months," according to its [website](https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating), meaning it's not beholden to the two-quarters restriction. Regardless of which recession definition you prefer, the current state of the economy doesn't qualify. GDP has not fallen for two consecutive quarters, and the NBER has not declared a recession. In fact, the U.S. hasn't technically had a recession in years. The last recession took place from February 2020 to April 2020, right as the pandemic was getting underway. ## Inflation, unemployment and stock market misconceptions It's not uncommon for there to be a major difference between how analysts think the economy is performing and how everyday Americans feel about their money. But the *Guardian* poll surfaces several beliefs that run contrary to the facts. For instance, it found that 72% of people say they think inflation is increasing, when in reality it's been *de*creasing for months. About half say unemployment is at a five-decade high — in truth, it's near a five-decade *low*. Another 49% of those polled say [the S&P 500](https://money.com/what-is-the-sp-500-index/) — an index that serves as a benchmark for stock market performance overall — is down so far in 2024, when it's actually up 12%. What's behind the disconnect? It could be politics. With the 2024 presidential election coming up, voters are scrutinizing how the economy performed under candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump. In the survey, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say both the U.S. is in a recession and inflation is surging. It could also simply be lived experience. The vibes are not great, especially depending on what economic indicators matter to you: A [2023 survey from *The Atlantic*](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/inflation-food-prices-democrat-biden/676901/), for instance, found that people were deeply upset about the cost of groceries, which isn't something that's necessarily captured in high-level analysis. Housing continues to feel unaffordable for vast swaths of Americans, as well, given sky-high [mortgage rates](https://money.com/current-mortgage-rates/) and rents that are rising, in some places, faster than wages. Whatever the reason, the *Guardian* survey data indicates that we're likely to hear a lot more about the state of the economy before November. 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[Get Started](https://money.com/pr/u5c2defb44d4?ap_referrer=%2Famericans-think-us-in-recession-survey%2F) ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession-survey/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://money.com" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Economy and Politics", "item": "https://money.com/economy-and-politics/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Recession", "item": "https://money.com/recession/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Over Half of Americans Think the U.S. Is in a Recession (It's Not)" } ] }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://money.com/#website", "url": "https://money.com", "name": "Money", "publisher": { "@id": "https://money.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession-survey/#webpage", "url": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession-survey/", "name": "Over Half of Americans Think the U.S. Is in a Recession (It's Not)", "isPartOf": { "@id": "https://money.com/#website" }, "datePublished": "2024-05-22T20:12:38.000Z", "mainEntity": { "@id": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession-survey/" }, "inLanguage": "en-US", "breadcrumb": { "@id": "https://money.com/americans-think-us-in-recession-survey/#breadcrumb" }, "dateModified": "2024-05-22T20:12:38.000Z" }, { "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Over Half of Americans Think the U.S. Is in a Recession (It's Not)", "articleSection": "Economy and Politics", "image": [ { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://img.money.com/2024/05/News-Americans-Think-Recession.jpg", "width": 1889, "height": 1259, "caption": "News-Americans-Think-Recession" } ], "author": [ { "@type": "Person", "name": "Julia Glum", "url": "https://money.com/author/julia-glum/", "@id": "https://money.com/author/julia-glum/#author", "description": "Julia Glum joined Money in 2018 and specializes in covering financial trends that affect everyday Americans' wallets. 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